As the world prepares to enter the third year of the Covid-19 pandemic, it is easy to feel despondent. The Omicron variant is running rampant, putting pressure on health systems and playing havoc with reopening plans. The high transmissibility of the new strain could result in a staggering three billion infections globally over the next two months, according to one model.
In Ireland, daily reported case numbers are now higher than at any point in the pandemic . Almost 17,000 new infections were confirmed yesterday, and the real figure is likely to be much higher. Hospital admissions are creeping upwards and staff shortages due to quarantine and self-isolation are beginning to bite.
A peak in Omicron cases in the coming weeks would not solve every problem but it would be a very encouraging sign
The dangers Ireland and the world face are very real. Even if Omicron is in general causing less severe disease, whether due to greater immune resistance thanks to vaccines and prior infection or the characteristics of the variant itself, health systems could still buckle under the weight of huge caseloads. Having large parts of the population in and out of self-isolation on a recurring basis will also pose risks to essential services and sectors. Notwithstanding that, however, there are reasonable grounds to hope that, with the right mix of policy and individual actions, the final stages of the pandemic can be within reach.
Depress the peak
The immediate challenge is to depress the peak of the Omicron wave. Key indicators in Ireland are close to the “optimistic” scenario plotted by Government’s public health advisers in early December, with the numbers in ICU (currently 93) substantially lower than the “optimistic” peak scenario of 150-250. A rapid worsening of the situation could rekindle debate on further restrictions, but for now the Government must feel it can maintain its current course. With the Special Rapporteur on Child Protection again underlining the harmful effects of school closures, keeping classrooms safe and open must be the priority in the current phase.
A peak in Omicron cases in the coming weeks would not solve every problem but it would be a very encouraging sign. High vaccination rates boosted by third doses and high infection-acquired immunity would strengthen the population’s defences against any new mutations going into spring and summer, when better weather would help to ease indoor mixing. And with global vaccine production now close to 1.5 billion doses a month, there is no excuse for failing to address scandalously low vaccine stocks in the developing world.
That must now be the priority. Just 10 per cent of people in the poorest countries have received at least one jab, according to the World Health Organisation. Finally putting that right is the one step that, more than any other, could help to bring the pandemic under control.