The predicament of the French right is not unlike that of the US Republican Party. Choosing someone to lead the party to electoral victory requires party activists to put aside political preference, whether ideological or personal, in favour of candidates’ notional “electability”. In practice, if the internal process is democratic, the party may be held hostage by a well-organised personal faction or by extremist currents, producing a candidate loved by the rank and file with no prospect of broader appeal.
And, just as US Democrats viewed the emerging candidacies of more and more exotic varieties of the Republican right with nothing short of glee, so too in Paris these days. There the remarkable political resurrection of ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy, re-elected last weekend to lead the UMP (Union for a Popular Movement), is being greeted as manna from heaven on the party’s right, by the National Front (FN) and left by beleaguered President Hollande’s Socialists (PSF).
If anything, rivals complain, his victory, with 64.5 per cent of votes , was not decisive enough – Sarkozy may not have built up enough momentum to beat off former prime minister Alain Juppé, his main rival in the next internal election, a party primary for the 2017 presidential election. A man considerably more acceptable to the people of France as next president – a poll by the BVA institute ten days ago found 57 per cent of the French had a favourable opinion of Juppé, with only 23 per cent for Sarkozy.
The latter, charismatic but divisive, continues to trail unfinished but serious legal prosecutions in his wake, while public memories of his deeply unpopular final months in office still linger. Even in the UMP activists are deeply divided.
Having won control of the party, however, many speculate Sarkozy may decide he is no longer so enamoured of the primary system he has championed and seek to have himself appointed its presidential candidate. If he does, the field on the right may become very crowded. Juppé may stand as an independent, while centrist Michel Bayrou (Modem) is also likely to throw his hat in the ring, splitting the centre right and allowing the rampant FN's Marine Le Pen to win a place in the second round of polling.
The second candidate for round two, would depend on whether Hollande, currently running on less than 20 per cent, the most unpopular president of the Fifth Republic, can drag his vote above the various candidates in the split right wing field. If he does, however, one poll recently suggested he would lose the presidency to Le Pen, a possibility that would represent a striking and shocking political and psychological earthquake in France’s political history. If Sarkozy faces Le Pen, he would probably beat her. The possibilities in all their permutations should make for a fascinating couple of years. The stakes are huge.