The retreat of Islamic State on the battlefield in Syria and Iraq has caused the terrorist organisation’s power and profile to wane. Having at its peak controlled over a third of Iraq and a large swathe of northeast Syria, the group was eventually routed by an international coalition galvanised to act by the appalling atrocities it committed and the global security threat it posed. Against that background, the trial of Lisa Smith, the Dundalk woman who was found guilty of Islamic State membership by the Special Criminal Court on Monday, recalled a period that is already receding from public memory in the West (Smith was found not guilty of a second charge of funding terrorism).
Yet the threat posed by Islamic State, also known as ISIS, cannot be said to have gone away. In the region where it once claimed to have revived an Islamic Caliphate, the organisation has regrouped as an insurgent force that is still capable of carrying out attacks. In January, 200 of its fighters, using state-of-the-art equipment, launched an attack on a prison in Al-Hasakah, in northeast Syria, in the hope of freeing some 3,500 of its militants. Farther afield, where affiliate groups emerged, its fortunes have varied. Its threat has been virtually eradicated in Saudi Arabia and the Philippines while the Egyptian state has recorded significant successes against it in the Sinai. But it retains an active presence in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Libya and the Sahel region of west Africa. Its war chests are kept topped up by levies and social-network fundraising.
While territorial losses and coalition successes have staunched the flow of foreign fighters to Syria and Iraq, and terrorist attacks committed by returning westerners have reduced, the security threat in Europe also remains. Police have foiled a number of attacks on the continent in the past three years, and security experts believe a greater challenge is posed today by “homegrown” terrorists who have no direct link with an Islamist group but are inspired by their ideologies. Radicalisation will remain a preoccupation for security services long after Islamic State has been defeated.