Seldom can victory have felt more like defeat. Emmanuel Macron’s alliance, Ensemble, emerged after Sunday’s parliamentary election run-offs as the largest bloc in France’s National Assembly. But its 245 seats leave it far short of the 289 needed for a majority, meaning that just weeks after Macron swept to a second term as president, his ability to fulfil his agenda will be constrained like never before.
Ranged against Macron’s bloc is a divided chamber reflecting the deep fractures in French politics. The left-wing Nupes coalition, led by radical left-wing veteran Jean-Luc Mélenchon, took 131 seats, though the showing of its key constituent parts remains largely unchanged on 2017. The most significant breakthrough was that of the far-right Rassemblement National, which took 89 seats, overtaking the conservative Les Républicains, which won 61. It had just eight in the outgoing assembly and has always struggled to gain a foothold via the two-round electoral system. Macron himself must take a share of the blame for the surge in support for Marine Le Pen’s party, having refused to call on his supporters last week to vote for other candidates to keep the far-right out.
While the final result yesterday was better for Macron than initial projections on Sunday evening indicated, leaving him with the scope to push through laws with the help of Les Républicains, his room for manoeuvre is nonetheless badly diminished. Planned reforms to the retirement age and the benefits system are now in doubt. A widely signalled leftward policy shift in his administration now seems unrealistic, given his government’s new reliance on the centre-right. And while the presidential system ensures Macron will retain full control over national defence and foreign policy, the result, and the perpetual domestic headaches it will cause the Élysée, will inevitably have an impact on the time and attention he can devote to his work on the international scene. Five years after Macron came to power thanks to an irresistible public appetite for renewal, he has been thwarted by that same force.