There have been some tentative signs that a breakthrough may be possible in the coming weeks on the continuing impasse around the Northern Ireland protocol. Speaking in Westminster on Monday, European Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said that the difficulties could be overcome “within a couple of weeks”. Meeting on the margins of the Cop27 conference in Egypt, British prime minister Rishi Sunak and commission president Ursula von der Leyen restated their commitment to finding an agreed solution. Irish Government figures have commented favourably on a new tone from London since the departure of Boris Johnson, and the arrival of Sunak in Downing Street has further fuelled optimism that a change in the British approach, enabling an agreement to be reached which would essentially involve a light-touch implementation of the present protocol, is on the cards. It would be long past time.
A sense of urgency on all sides would be good to see. Northern Ireland is without a government and on a countdown to another fruitless election that will solve nothing and only harden divisions.
Despite the improved mood music, however, overcoming the current impasse will not be easy. Both Dublin and Brussels have signalled their willingness to compromise and there are signs of progress on one of the key issues – how to check goods moving from Britain into Northern Ireland. It remains to be seen if a way can be found around the red lines. Dublin requires that there is no hint of checks being needed at the Irish Border, or on goods leaving for Continental Europe. The EU is insistent on protecting the integrity of the Single Market. The DUP believes there should be no checks on goods entering from Britain. Meanwhile there is no immediately apparent solution to some other key difficulties, such as the role of the European Court of Justice in disputes.
There is no reason why agreement cannot be hammered out on these issues. But unless London moderates its previous position, there will be no deal. If he is to make that move, it will require Sunak to face down some of the Brexit ultras within his own party. We have not yet had the opportunity to gauge his stomach for that fight.
A novel exploration of the shared Gaelic heritage of Ireland and Scotland
NI health service set to avoid strikes after deal proves ‘massive step forward’
UK government ordered to hold public inquiry into murder of GAA official by loyalists
PSNI and Met police unlawfully spied on two journalists, tribunal finds
In addition, if it is to pave the way for the power-sharing institutions to be resuscitated, a deal will have to be acceptable to the DUP. But the DUP’s demands may well be beyond the eventual UK government position, and certainly beyond what the EU could live with. Unless the DUP is willing to compromise, the party may be faced with the prospect of being utterly isolated, holding out for demands not supported by London, Dublin, Brussels – or by most of the other Northern parties.
It would be hard to imagine how this approach could be in the best interests of all the people of Northern Ireland.