The new Cabinet took office on Saturday evening, holding its first meeting under the Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, as is tradition, in Áras an Uachtaráin after ministers received their seals of office from the President. After weeks of intense speculation in political circles, its personnel changed not at all, and there was the minimum number of switches of departmental portfolios. The three party leaders decided that the route of minimum political risk was to implement the minimum number of changes.
In some respects the Government will not change at all – the same parties, the same people, implementing the same programme for government. In other respects, however, people will notice a change immediately - Leo Varadkar is now the leader of the Government, its chief spokesman, its public face. His style and his approach will inevitably be different from his predecessor.
The challenges facing the new Taoiseach are wide, deep and varied. In the short-term he must manage the political fallout from the switch within the government, conveying both change and continuity. He must adapt to his role in managing the differing needs of his coalition partners, acknowledging the particular pressures they face from their own parties, while at the same time keeping the whole enterprise within the guardrails of the programme for government. And, increasingly, he will face the political pressure of managing all this as a general election approaches.
One of the principal differences between the premiership of Micheál Martin and that of Leo Varadkar is that the latter will end with a general election. That difference is likely to become more pronounced over the next two years. Managing a three-party coalition will require judgment, tact and a sense of his partners’ needs that Varadkar will need to cultivate sooner rather than later.
He will also face tough choices in implementing the climate action agenda, as legally binding pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions run up against the political unpopularity of the measures required to bring them about. In the new year, Varadkar will also see fresh challenges in Northern Ireland on the protocol.
Above all, his challenge will be to achieve tangible progress in housing, healthcare and provide as much respite as possible to people struggling with increases in the cost of living. Housing remains the political ground zero for the reformed Government, and the signs are unsettling; while house building rose this year, it may fall in 2023 and the rental markets remains in deep trouble.
The only possible message for any government seeking re-election is some version of the old Fianna Fáil slogan - “A lot done, more to do”. The only possible electoral salvation for the Government is to make sure it gets more done; the clock is ticking.