The most remarkable feature of the latest Irish Times/Ipsos poll is how little public opinion has changed as a result of the recent political controversies involving the election expenditure of Minister for Public Expenditure, Paschal Donohoe, and of his critics in Sinn Féin.
The poll shows Fine Gael and Sinn Féin on exactly the same level of support they achieved in the last Irish Times poll five months ago, with the satisfaction ratings of the respective party leaders Leo Varadkar and Mary Lou McDonald both slipping a little since then.
The only big party whose support has dropped is Fianna Fáil, which was not involved in recent election spending controversies, although the positive news for the party is that Micheál Martin retains his position as the most popular leader.
Sinn Féin remains comfortably ahead of the other parties with 35 per cent of the electorate indicating its support. The party has been in or around this figure for over a year and for the moment it appears to have reached a ceiling. The question is whether it will be able to hold on to that level of support until the next election, which is not expected for another 18 months at the earliest.
Fine Gael will be reasonably happy that its last poll showing of 22 per cent has held up, but there will be some disappointment that the return of Leo Varadkar to the Taoiseach’s office has not served as a boost to the party, while his own satisfaction rating has slipped marginally.
The question for Fianna Fáil is whether the drop in support by three points to 18 per cent is a blip or the beginning of a trend. For the Coalition to have any chance of retaining power at the next election both of the leading parties need to be able to attract at least 20 per cent of the electorate. Martin’s continued standing as the most popular leader should be an asset as the election draws closer.
The Greens, as the small party in the Coalition, are the most vulnerable to taking a hit next time out. The party remains on 4 per cent and will take heart that its standing in Dublin is a healthier 8 per cent, which gives it hope of being able to retain some seats in the capital.
Labour has managed to inch up one point to 4 per cent and, like the Greens, is on 8 per cent in Dublin. Its support level is now double that of the Social Democrats, which has slipped a point to 2 per cent. That party is now entering a new phase with the decision of Róisín Shortall and Catherine Murphy to step down as joint leaders.
A feature of the poll is the rise in the number of undecided voters to 28 per cent, a jump of five points since the last poll. Winning over a substantial proportion of these will be a key aim of all parties as the election approaches. It will be a long run in to the next general election.