The visit by Taoiseach Leo Varadkar to meet politicians and civic and business groups in Northern Ireland is part of wider efforts to try to get the institutions up and running again at Stormont and end a damaging political vacuum. It was given some added spice by Varadkar’s comments that the British government is reluctant to work “hand and glove” with Dublin to achieve this.
Relationships have improved under prime minister Rishi Sunak, it appears, but clearly this falls short of what the Government was hoping for. Dublin feels the two governments should be working closely to try to achieve progress, while London is focused on talking directly with the DUP. The party has so far shown no sign of going back to Stormont, due to its concerns on trade arrangements between Britain and Northern Ireland. At least, after meeting the Taoiseach, DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson kept his options open, saying talks were continuing with London.
The clock is ticking. Politically, as Varadkar has said, if progress is not made soon then attention will turn on both sides of the Irish Sea to the next Westminster election, set to be held at some stage next year. Attempts to restore Stormont would then almost certainly be delayed until after the vote. In the meantime, Northern Ireland’s voters would remain without a functioning Executive and Assembly. As Varadkar said yesterday, if this happened the two governments would have to decide how to respond.
Economically, the cost of a continuing political deadlock would be significant. A US investment conference is due to be held in the North next month, followed by the arrival of a US trade mission in October. These are designed to highlight the unique access for manufacturers in Northern Ireland to both the UK and EU markets post-Brexit. However, above all else investors look for political stability and this requires a functioning Stormont. Against a backdrop of continuing political crisis these events would be a waste of time.
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The DUP can point to progress made via the Windsor Framework in addressing its concerns on trade and they can put pressure on the UK and EU to continue to address ongoing issues. Frameworks, by their nature, are not an end point but a basis for further development. What the party cannot expect is that the framework will be torn up to create a deal more to its liking. Brexit means change is inevitable, but it also brings significant opportunities for Northern Ireland.
Time is now short and while Varadkar says that he travelled to Northern Ireland “more in hope than expectation,” it is incumbent on the two governments to make one last push to restore the Stormont institutions before the Westminster elections come into view. And the question remains for Donaldson – what viable alternative does he now see?