With something that could be mistaken for reluctance, politics is returning to action after the long summer break. The Cabinet held its first meeting since July during the week. A few Ministers have been out and about making announcements this past week; sightings of the Opposition have been sparse. The September think-ins hosted by the various parties commence on Monday, when Fianna Fáil members gather at the Horse and Jockey in Co Tipperary, followed by their Coalition colleagues and Opposition rivals throughout the rest of the week. On Wednesday week, September 20th, the Dáil returns. The budget is set for Tuesday, October 10th.
The date of the next election is unknown, perhaps even to the Taoiseach. But it must take place in or before March 2025, so this Government is entering its final phase in office. This may well be its last budget. It is past time for Ministers to prioritise the policies and initiatives they hope to bring to conclusion before the election. They will have neither time nor capacity to do everything.
The publication of the Electoral Commission’s recommendations for boundary changes and additional TDs will give the green light to all parties to plan their campaigns and select their candidates. While party managers might wish to see the results of next year’s local elections before making final decisions about personnel, they know they might not have that luxury. The election could come before then. Whether he takes it or not, Leo Varadkar is likely to want to have to option of doing so. That means being election ready in the first half of next year.
While the Government parties must look to completing their programmes, elections tend to be more about the future than the past. So the parties must also consider what they will offer to voters in anticipation of a further term in power. All incumbent governments seek re-election on the basis of past achievements and future plans: Bertie Ahern once declared he had “a lot done, more to do.” Voters liked the idea. Enda Kenny asked voters to “keep the recovery going”; they were less impressed.
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For the Opposition parties, bidding to replace the Coalition, the time is coming for them to spell out in more detail what the change they advocate would mean in the lives of voters. Which bits exactly would change? Which wouldn’t? This is a particular challenge for Sinn Féin, seeking to lead the alternative government. The party’s strength in the polls suggests that many voters like its promise of change from the old order that has governed the State for the past 100 years. Many of those voters, however, are likely to want to know exactly what change means. In particular, they will want to know what it means in the vital areas of housing, health and the cost of living: those remain the essential political battlegrounds.