The surprise return of David Cameron to frontline politics as British foreign secretary after a few years of semi-retirement says more about the lack of fresh talent available to prime minister Rishi Sunak on his backbenches than it does about the former prime minister’s record. Cameron will be best remembered for inflicting the calamity of the Brexit referendum on these islands, and all the costs and difficulties which have followed.
The promotion of a prominent remainer could, however, suggest that Sunak is willing both to shake off the dead hand of the Tory far right, and perhaps even embrace a more pragmatic, centrist politics ahead of next year’s general election. The British prime minister is hoping that, after promising his conference only three weeks ago to rebrand and lead the “party of change”, voters will now see Cameron as a departure from the madness of the roller-coaster Johnson-Truss years. Short-term memories, he hopes, will cloud recall of the era of austerity politics that Cameron and his chancellor George Osborne ushered in. Placating the northern red-wall states will have to take second place.
But with Labour sustaining a steady 20-point lead in the polls, it is unlikely that Monday’s reshuffle will see Sunak make much ground back.
In Dublin, Cameron’s return will probably be viewed reasonably positively. As prime minister he had a strong relationship with then taoiseach Enda Kenny, and presided over what many saw as an era of improving Anglo-Irish bilateral relations that culminated in the queen’s visit. At least, some will say, unlike others, he made an attempt to understand Irish issues. However, much of the task of dealing with Ireland, North and South, and the unfinished issue of Brexit as they relate to Northern Ireland will still be handled by No 10, not by the new foreign office incumbent.
The departure of the former home secretary, Suella Braverman, was inevitable. Her ambition to lead the party saw her taunt Sunak to sack her by openly defying his right to vet her statements. In the end he could do nothing else, cleverly covering up his dwindling authority with the Cameron coup de theatre.
She leaves her successor in the Home Office, James Cleverly, with immediate challenges– most notably, repairing the damage done to the British government’s relationship with the police after her suggestions of political bias in the Met over its handling of demonstrations. And on Wednesday the UK supreme court rules on the legality of sending illegal migrants to Rwanda. If the government loses, the Tory right, almost certainly led by Braverman, will launch a divisive campaign to pull the UK out of the European Court of Human Rights. Nothing like a European campaign, even though nothing to do with the EU, to stir up the patriotic voters.