Any chance of a meaningful challenge to Donald Trump’s ambition of becoming the Republican party’s nominee for the third US presidential election in a row receded on Monday night with the results of the Iowa caucuses. The first contest of primary season confirmed the former president’s position as overwhelming favourite to be his party’s candidate on election day in November.
Historically, Iowa has often altered the early narrative of the primary calendar, delivering setbacks to frontrunners and sparking unexpected comebacks. The state also has a history of choosing candidates who fail to go on to win their party’s nomination.
Not this year. Trump outperformed his poll numbers to take more than half of the vote and score a crushing win over his nearest rivals. Florida governor Ron DeSantis, trailing 30 per cent behind in second place, was able to claim some success by staying ahead of former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, but his prospects in upcoming contests in New Hampshire and South Carolina look grim. Haley herself may have missed an opportunity to knock DeSantis out of the race, which would have left her her the sole alternative to Trump. The withdrawal of populist candidate Vivek Ramaswamy probably gives Trump a further boost in New Hampshire, should he need it.
The relevance of any of this is moot. Trump’s dominance of his party now appears almost complete. Republican voters, from evangelical Christians to suburban conservatives, have coalesced around him. Even the pragmatic argument that he would be a weak candidate in the general election has wilted in the face of recent polls showing him nudging ahead of president Joe Biden.
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All indications are that Trump’s plan is to wrap up the nomination by early March at the latest. Not coincidentally, federal prosecutors are seeking to start his trial, on charges of attempting to subvert the results of the 2020 election, by the end of March. The US faces the prospect of an election during which one of the candidates will spend more time in the courtroom than on the campaign trail. And Trump could well have been convicted by the time voters actually go to the polls.
As things currently stand, those voters will be presented with a choice they do not want, between two politicians they see as too old and too burdened with historical baggage. The consequences are impossible to predict, although the possibility of the country electing a convicted felon as president will surely hang over the entire year. For many Americans, though, as for many others watching from around the world, the return to power of Donald Trump, a man by his own admission driven by a desire for vengeance and personal retribution, would be a chilling prospect.