The recommendation by Ialpa, the airline pilots union, that its 800 members at Aer Lingus accept a compromise proposed by the Labour Court should bring an end to the pay dispute that has discommoded almost 86,000 passengers since June 26th.
Ialpa has agreed to halt a work-to-rule by its members while they vote on the proposal. And Aer Lingus, which has cancelled over 573 flights to date, expects its schedule to return to normal from next Wednesday.
The court has recommended a 17.75 per cent pay increase spread over four years, backdated to 2023. It falls short of the 24 per cent that the pilots were looking for, but other non-pay elements bridge the gap somewhat.
The decision by the Labour Court to intervene under its statutory powers represented the last opportunity to avert an escalation of industrial action to strike action.
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The court essentially called both sides’ bluff, observing that in its view neither side really believed that their proposal was acceptable to the other and therefore both knew that compromise was inevitable. It added that failure to resolve the issue in the short term could, in the view of the court, give rise to an unspecified but “very grave and unfavourable outcome”.
The court’s logic proved correct, although the pilots’ union seemed determined at times to test it to its limits by procrastinating over whether to accept the recommendation, despite Aer Lingus’s almost immediate acceptance of the deal.
The pilots will vote between July 18th and July 23rd. They should accept the deal. As with any dispute, there comes a point after which the likelihood of potential incremental gains from continuing with industrial action are not worth the risk in terms of damage to the employer and, by extension, jobs.
The corollary holds for the employer. If its quick response is any guide, it would appear that Aer Lingus believes the cost-benefit rubric has kicked in. The number of flights cancelled to date is the equivalent of two days of passenger traffic at this time of year. The costs in monetary terms will run into the millions and the reputational damage is significant, although the price-driven nature of air travel choices should limit the long term impact.
Across the apron at Dublin Airport, Ryanair will no doubt take notice of the deal and factor in the knock-on effect for its own wage bill. Pilots are in demand globally and, as the Aer Lingus dispute shows, they know their own worth in the current market.
Ultimately, the costs of the deal – if accepted by the pilots – will be passed on to Aer Lingus customers in the form of higher air fares. But in the short term they have one less thing to worry about as they embark on their summer holidays.