Anyone concerned about the current and future health of Irish democratic politics will read with t interest the results of a survey conducted by the Electoral Commission in the wake of the local and European elections.
Undertaken as part of a long-term longitudinal project which will follow voter attitudes and behaviour over the next few years, the online survey of more than 3,000 voters offers a range of illuminating insights. Some are reassuring, while others give some cause for concern.
The increased volatility of the electorate is highlighted by the fact that 64 per cent of those who cast their ballot in the European Parliament elections only decided who to vote for in the final week of the campaign. The figure was slightly lower for the local elections, but the message is clear: in a political environment where traditional party loyalties are disappearing, campaigns matter more than ever.
Sixty per cent of respondents believe that councillors are hard-working and competent, while 70 per cent say the level of aggression being shown to politicians is unacceptable. A similar percentage are opposed to protests outside politicians’ homes. These figures offer a welcome counterpoint to the views which sometimes seem to dominate discourse on social media. .
Questions on so-called “culture war” issues do reveal a significant minority of voters expressing support for what would generally be regarded as far-right conspiracy theories. More than a fifth of respondents, for example, believe the “establishment” is replacing white Irish people with non-white migrants. A similar proportion believe politicians want more immigration to bring in “obedient voters” who will vote for them in future elections. Thirty per cent agree with the proposition that a secret group of people is responsible for making major decisions in the world of politics and that there are “hidden efforts” to destroy or marginalise certain groups of people through political policies. People who voted for Sinn Féin, Aontú and Independent Ireland are more likely to believe these conspiracy theories than those who supported other parties.
While these numbers are a cause for concern, they should be placed in context. The answers were in response to quite leading questions, which could have some bearing on the results. And in some cases they may reflect the views of people who are suspicious of official narratives without subscribing to full-blown conspiracism.
But it should not come as a surprise that in Ireland, as elsewhere, a portion of the electorate is receptive to racist and irrational conspiracy theories. The troubling question is whether such beliefs are on the rise, a question which future instalments of the Electoral Commission’s survey should help to answer.