The second coming of Donald Trump may not have been as much of a surprise as the first, but it has the potential to be far more disastrous. The new president-elect’s first administration was assembled in the chaotic aftermath of his unexpected victory in 2016. Its policy platform, such as it was, consisted more of oracular pronouncements than concrete proposals ready for implementation. He filled his cabinet with establishment stalwarts and army generals, who acted as guardrails against his worst instincts. The guardrails worked – just about. But they won’t be there this time.
Following his emphatic victory, Trump finds himself in a position of total dominance. For almost a decade, he has loudly proclaimed a number of core policy goals. Now, with control of the Senate, a good chance of a House majority, and a pliant supreme court, he has the opportunity to radically remake Washington.
There is no reason to believe he will not attempt to take it, although his capacity for self-sabotage should not be underestimated. Trump is notoriously unfocused and is becoming ever more uninhibited and erratic with age. But he does have a keener understanding now of how to work the levers of power.
He will also be surrounded by loyalists committed to a deeply reactionary agenda. In recent years a policy-making superstructure has grown up around Trumpism, financed by billionaire supporters who see him as a vehicle for their own, often anti-democratic beliefs.
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Taking Trump’s own words seriously means believing that his administration will seek to end the independence of the Federal Reserve, use the Justice department to go after opponents, and dismiss thousands of federal employees if they are deemed disloyal. Each one of these would represent a challenge to good government practice. Taken together they would form an unprecedented assault on core American principles.
Even more drastic from a humanitarian perspective, the proposal to round up, detain and deport millions of undocumented immigrants would lead inevitably to inhumane treatment on a mass scale by enforcement agencies, with drastic implications for the rule of law. And the introduction of a 20 per cent tariff on imports would, ironically, cause a spike in consumer prices as bad or worse than the one which contributed to the Democrats’ humiliating downfall.
How much of this might actually come to pass? The movement that Trump leads is full of contradictions. His inner circle ranges from libertarian plutocrats to committed protectionists. His new administration might feature just as much internecine squabbling as his last one. And some of its policies could spark a full-blown crisis. But emboldened by his new mandate, the decision lies with one man alone: Donald Trump.