As this general election campaign draws to its close, it is hard to disagree with the widely held view that it has been a lacklustre affair.
Why has it failed to catch fire? One could point to the months-long phoney war which preceded the calling of the election, draining it of surprise or drama when it finally arrived. The campaign itself has also been short – less than three weeks, with the first passing in a blizzard of competing promises. That information overload often obscured more than it illuminated the fact that there was less difference between many of the parties’ positions than they would have you believe.
It was only in in the latter days of the contest that questions began to be seriously asked about the wisdom of making unprecedented financial commitments for the next five years, given the very real threat posed to tax revenues by international developments. The answers to these questions have generally been unconvincing. While there is no doubt that a rising population, a growing economy and a housing crisis all render increased investment in infrastructure and services essential, too often the proposals laid out in manifestos resembled bids at an auction rather than well-grounded plans for the future.
The main reason for the tepid campaign, though, is that, based on current party support levels, the range of potential outcomes seems limited. It remains possible, of course, that voters will deliver a shock result tomorrow. But in the absence of that it is hard to look beyond the likelihood of the next government being formed again around Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. That will frustrate those who believe it is time for a radical change. But it is the most popular choice among those recorded in this week’s Irish Times Ipsos B&A poll.
The most significant development of the last three weeks has been the slump in support for Fine Gael. If reflected in the final outcome, that could complicate considerably the process of government formation. Strong support for Independents across the country would also lead to a more fragmented Dáil. It was telling that, having expressed distaste for the idea of a four or five-party coalition on the Irish Times Inside Politics podcast last Thursday, Simon Harris appeared to view the prospect with more equanimity by the time of the RTÉ leaders’ debate on Tuesday.
The smaller parties of the centre-left will view these developments with interest, while remaining aware that the strength of their negotiating positions will be determined by the results of a handful of unpredictable local contests across the State. And Sinn Féin can harbour reasonable hopes of a late recovery at the end of its annus horribilis. Despite appearances, then, this remains a highly consequential election with a range of possible outcomes.