Thousands have been seriously inconvenienced or worse this week by extremely cold weather. The full extent of the impact of the snow and ice that covered large parts of the country will not be clear for some days or even weeks, but many have endured the loss of power and water services as well as transport delays. Schools have been closed and hospital appointments have been postponed.
As the temperature returns to levels that are more typical of this time of year, there is an opportunity to review the State’s response, which displayed an abundance of caution. Some will grumble – most likely those lucky enough to live in areas, such as greater Dublin, which were spared the worst of the bad weather. But caution must be the default setting in such circumstances.
There are of course lessons to be learned – and it is important they are learned, as all the indications are that extreme events will be more, rather than less, likely as the earth’s climate changes in response to global warming. On Friday it was confirmed that 2024 was the hottest year on record, with average temperatures 1.6 degrees above pre-industrial levels. It follows a warning this week by Met Éireann that extreme weather events will become more normal.
The availability of accurate and timely weather forecasts – such as those available this week – is key to the successful navigation of such events as they trigger the activation of the National Emergency Coordination Group. Met Éireann’s decision earlier this year to partner with its counterparts in Denmark, Iceland and the Netherlands in the use of an Iceland-based weather-forecasting supercomputer called Aurora would appear to already be paying off.
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Accurately forecasting the weather is one thing. Effectively communicating predictions is another and the three-level system used by Met Éireann is proving to be effective. There may be some lack of clarity in the mind of the public as to what each level means, but the yellow, orange, and red sequence is intuitively comprehensible. We’ll be seeing them more often.