The draft programme for government amounts to little more than a set of vague, aspirational spending promises drawn from the manifestos of the two big parties to the deal. To achieve even a portion of what is promised, the public finances will need to remain healthy, which is far from guaranteed. Hard choices lie ahead, particularly given the emerging threats to Ireland’s economic model, but you wouldn’t know it from the document.
The programme appears caught between business-as-usual from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael and promises to do things better, or faster. Priorities are hard to discern. And there is a lingering reluctance to accept that new approaches are needed, including in areas such as housing and the rental market.
There are some changes in direction given that the Regional Independent Group in effect has replaced the Green Party, including a new emphasis on roads. There are presumably some constituency deals.
The document does give a nod to prioritisation when it says that if the public finance position worsens, State investment spending will be protected and income tax reductions postponed. In this scenario the government will do its best to protect public services, it suggests.
There is no clarity on what any of the promises will cost. And so it is impossible to judge what might be affordable. A new medium-term framework for the public finances is promised and this is likely to collide at some stage with the spending commitments.
The programme does include a section on delivery and reform and emphasises the importance of value for money. It contains proposals to change the oversight of major projects and try to speed their delivery. There are some useful ideas here, but the new government, with many of the same old faces, needs to demonstrate a fresh energy in these areas and a willingness to change.
The draft plan is cautious in too many areas, proposing countless reviews and examinations, for example of Fine Gael’s plan for a payment for the families of all newborn children, which should be quietly forgotten. It has welcome commitments in other areas, such as disability.
Ireland’s lagging performance on climate is more or less ignored, with a repetition of existing targets, which look unlikely to be achieved. A new push is promised for wind investment, including offshore, and investment in the energy network. We’ll see. Anything that would upset any sector, including farming, is fudged. At some stage these contradictions will have to be faced.
Perhaps we should not expect too much from a programme designed to allow a government to be elected and win the support of a sufficient number of Independents. But the country deserves better than this vague, contradictory wishlist.