German politics are going through a dangerous moment following the decision of Friedrich Merz, the centre-right opposition leader, to pursue and accept parliamentary votes on immigration from the far-right party Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD). Passage of a non-binding parliamentary motion through the Bundestag last week with their support is a fundamental break from the cross-party “firewall” that has denied such recognition to far-right parties. Although a subsequent bill containing new immigration controls was subsequently rejected in a dramatic vote on Friday, as some of Merz’s party changed sides, it brings many new uncertainties to the German general election campaign.
Merz’s view that violence committed by immigrants justifies him is rejected by other parties and jeopardises their willingness to work with him after the February 23rd vote. That matters because his CDU/CSU party is running on a 29 per cent share of votes in polling, compared to 22 per cent for the AfD, 17 per cent for the Social Democrats (SPD), 15 per cent for the Greens and an aggregate 9 per cent for the two left parties.
Merz says he will not bargain with the AfD after the elections, but outgoing SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz says he does not trust him now. Former CDU/CSU chancellor Angela Merkel also says Merz is wrong.
Merz is chasing voters defecting to the buoyant AfD and says that his policies to restrict asylum rights, stop family reunions and detain deportees are “right even if the wrong people vote for them”. Other parties regard this as suicidal and as a slippery slope to the far-right entering government, as has happened in Austria, Sweden, Italy, Hungary, the Netherlands and potentially in France. Since Germany is the paradigmatic case because of its Nazi history, the consequences for wider European politics are profound either way.
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They have been prefigured by the general move rightwards on the continent in recent years, often driven by the same migration issue now looming so large. That can be seen in the European Parliament, where the far-right bloc is third strongest, and in the politics of the new Commission. A far harsher regime of migration control and border closure is being put in place in a number of states, while at EU level external and internal policies are under review. It all puts free movement in question as one of the most valued achievements of European integration.
German leaders are right to describe Merz’s move as breaching a fundamental norm and a false solution to migration problems. In the remaining weeks of the campaign German voters face a stark choice in an increasingly fragmented political landscape.
There is a real danger that the pursuit of an opportunist governing majority will overturn its postwar embedded political stability.
