World leaders meeting in Munich this weekend for this year’s security summit will have had much to discuss. The week’s events in Washington and Moscow were highly significant for the future of the war in Ukraine. But they could also come to be seen as a furling of the US defence umbrella which has sheltered European democracies since the end of the second World War.
Leaders may have been shocked but were surely not surprised by the outcome of Donald Trump’s phone call with Vladimir Putin, or by US defence secretary Pete Hegseth’s statement in Brussels. US acceptance that Ukraine will not regain all territory currently held by Russia, and will not be joining Nato, had been anticipated. So was the declaration that American troops would not be involved in peacekeeping on Ukrainian soil.
What will have dismayed most European leaders, along with the people of Ukraine, was Trump’s insouciant concession of these points before negotiations had even begun, along with his apparent readiness for a bilateral agreement with Putin over the heads of the Ukrainians and Europeans.
It was a feature of Trump’s first term that the bellicosity of his rhetoric towards allies was matched by the warmth of his words for authoritarian adversaries. That trend looks set to worsen, judging by his vice-president JD Vance’s haranguing of European politicians at the summit.
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For Ukraine, the prospect of a secure and stable future now seems remote. There is every reason to believe Russia will be emboldened by the deal which now looks likely, and will seek to increase its pressure on the “near abroad” states it aims to bring within its orbit. That includes not just Ukraine and Georgia but the Baltic countries, whose membership of an enfeebled Nato is now less of a deterrent to Russian aggression.
Even so, and despite the triumphant noises coming from Moscow since the phone call between the leaders, the path ahead is not entirely clear. Trump’s foreign policy pronouncements so far have been a mess of non sequiturs and contradictions but US economic interests will take precedence when it comes to negotiating key issues such as sanctions on Russian energy.
UK prime minister Keir Starmer has told Volodomyr Zelenskiy that Ukraine is on an “irreversible path” to Nato. Emmanuel Macron has warned against “capitulation” to Russia. EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen says the EU will “absolutely” be at the negotiating table.
It is debatable whether any of these words can be followed by meaningful action. The brutal truth, as Zelenskiy himself has acknowledged, is that Europe does not have the capacity to defend Ukraine without US support. With the era of Pax Americana drawing rapidly to a close, what lies ahead is terra incognita.
