It is hardly more than a partial ceasefire, barely a wind-down in military exchanges. It is certainly not the delivery of Donald Trump’s promise of instant peace in Ukraine. The US president claimed there had been a “very good and productive” two-and-a-half-hour phone call on Tuesday with Russian president Vladimir Putin, that a “contract for peace” was on course and the “process” for a settlement was “in full force”.
Unfortunately, this appears to be a gross overstatement of reality. The two sides endorsed only a limited 30-day truce on attacking energy and infrastructure assets, followed by technical negotiations on a Black Sea maritime ceasefire and then talks on a “full ceasefire and permanent peace”.
Trump is convincing no-one and the EU sensibly took a wait and see approach. In the meantime, Putin’s troops are continuing their advance in the Russian province of Kursk and massing in the northeastern Sumy district for another offensive. Putin dismissed Trump’s push for the unconditional ceasefire which the US had forced on Ukraine and is trying to improve his position.
Ukraine and its allies will have watched the bilateral exchange and its limited outcome with little enthusiasm, though, through gritted teeth, making the required approving noises. What they see is confirmation that the US-Russian relationship is back on track. The US is distancing itself further from its traditional allies, with Trump signalling an openness to Russia’s terms in second-phase talks on a permanent ceasefire.
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Putin has not relinquished any of his hardline demands to end the war and appears to be suggesting that the second-round discussions can not even begin without agreement to “the unconditional necessity to remove the initial reasons for the crisis and Russia’s legal security interests”. That, in Moscow’s eyes, means Ukraine’s permanent exclusion from Nato.
Putin stressed Russia’s “key condition to stop the conflict from escalating” and move towards a settlement would be a “total end to foreign military support and intelligence sharing with Kyiv”. In other words, Ukraine’s disarmament and a ruling out of foreign safeguarding of a deal. There is no mention of China, Iran, and North Korea ending their support for Russia.
Such preconditions represent Russia’s maximalist position, a final outcome that can never be acceptable to Kyiv or its European allies. It would be a massive reward for illegal aggression. And while Trump has been talking down Ukraine’s legitimate demand for the return of its land, he has been notably silent on any reining back of Putin’s ambitions.
As in Gaza, Trump’s diplomacy, by failing to address the root causes of conflict, appears likely to set the scene for a return to all-out war as soon as the first partial ceasefire expires in less than 30 days.
