The three year Ukraine war is at a genuine moment of transition, between a continuing destructive war of scale and a sub-optimal peace deal. This moment has been signalled most vocally by the Trump presidency, which demands rapid decisions from Ukraine and Russia as the principal parties to the conflict. It is also clearly apparent to European and other world leaders, as to their citizens and administrations.
President Trump’s impatience has the merit of forcing decisions, thought he – dangerously – underestimates the complexities involved for all concerned. His insistence on a crudely ill-balanced minerals agreement in return for US military aid already delivered has forced Ukraine to comply in the hope it will continue. European leaders have done their best to fill the resulting military gaps, realising that is difficult indeed given US predominance. They commit to support Ukraine but their decisions on whether a prolonged war suits their varying interests as they adjust to a new transatlantic order will be important.
Similar choices face the Russians. They crave continuing support from Trump for reduced economic sanctions in return for a favourable Ukraine deal, but seek to maximise their advantages of military scale before serious talks begin. They could over-reach here but have been playing the Trump administration along cynically in the short term. That could backfire amid indications US leaders are divided on how to read Russian intentions.
Ukrainian leaders are playing their weaker hand courageously and skilfully through this crisis, but also have fateful choices to make. Were the war to continue minus US goodwill it would be much more difficult to retrieve the political ground their brave resistance to Russian imperial aggression has in fact gained their state.
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They now have a definite but troublesome route to European Union membership and the potential for post-war reconstruction. That falls short of the victory they had sought but it does provide a pathway for the future.
