Nature, it is said, abhors a vacuum. Politics often does too. Yet the slow bicycle race toward the presidential election has now reached its most lethargic phase, with little sign of urgency before the pace – hopefully – quickens in September.
At present there are just two confirmed candidates certain to secure a nomination: Catherine Connolly and Maireád McGuinness. That raises the possibility of the first two-way contest since Erskine Childers defeated Tom O’Higgins in 1973. But seasoned observers expect more names to emerge, whether under the banners of Fianna Fáil or Sinn Féin, or as Independents.
Peadar Tóibín of Aontú has publicly questioned whether an Independent can realistically gather the 20 Oireachtas votAes needed for nomination. If that route is blocked, the alternative is to secure backing from four local authorities. But time is short.
Sean Gallagher, who came close to winning the presidency in 2011, has warned that the local authority route demands a long lead-in. Lobbying councillors, arranging votes, and then mounting a campaign cannot be done in a matter of weeks. His own experience suggests that those who have yet to start this process may already be too late.
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As for those who have been mentioned as possible candidates, none has yet sparked much public enthusiasm. Some are virtually unknown outside small circles. Others either carry political baggage that would make them unelectable, or are plainly unfit to hold the office. The presidential race attracts many aspirants but the campaign itself tends to have a ruthlessly winnowing effect.
This leaves the focus on Micheál Martin, Mary Lou McDonald and their respective parties. They must decide soon whether or not to allow the election to proceed as a head-to-head between Connolly and McGuinness. Neither woman is unbeatable, and each has a political record that opponents could effectively exploit.
In politics, vacuums rarely last. By September, the parties will have to choose whether to fill this one or leave the electorate with a binary choice.
