And then there were three. Following an extended phoney war in the run-up to nominations closing this week, the battleines have now been drawn for the presidential election.
Four weeks from today, ballot boxes will be opened to reveal whether Catherine Connolly, Jim Gavin or Heather Humphreys will be Ireland’s 10th president.
At this point, all three will believe that victory is within their grasp. Connolly has assembled an impressively broad coalition of left-wing parties behind her and thus far has run the most modern and energetic campaign, with a string of public engagements including some high-profile podcasts. Her use of social and digital media seems well ahead of her rivals, reflecting a focus on younger voters who are more likely to be energised by her message on a range of subjects from Gaza to neutrality.
The campaigns of Humphreys and Gavin have been quieter. Humphreys has relied heavily on personality and biography. The former Fine Gael minister presents herself as a warm and familiar presence, focusing on local interactions and family history while rarely straying into policy. Gavin, making his electoral debut, is even more of an unknown quantity. Whether Micheál Martin’s decision to put forward the former Dublin football manager proves astute or naive will become clear in the coming weeks.
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Both candidates appear to be keeping their powder dry. They declined to challenge Connolly’s recent controversial remarks on Hamas and German military spending. Their calculation may well make sense. In a contest almost certain to be decided by transfers, there is little to gain and much to lose by alienating voters too early. They may also believe that the election will be won or lost in the final 10 days of the campaign, when less committed voters finally begin to focus on their choice.
That strategymay be correct but carries its own hazards. Neither Gavin nor Humphreys has yet demonstrated the ability to capture the public mood with empathy and vision in the way the last three presidents did when seeking office. Mary Robinson, Mary McAleese and Michael D Higgins each offered a forward-looking, unifying message that voters could rally behind. It is not yet clear which of today’s contenders can match that feat. Already, all three have stumbled over quite basic questions on the campaign trail.
The first televised debate on Monday will be the electorate’s initial chance to judge them side by side. It will test Connolly’s positions, reveal whether Gavin can rise to the national stage and show if Humphreys can convert personal warmth into a compelling national message. For now, the race remains finely balanced, with the decisive moves still to come.
