The decision of Jim Gavin to withdraw from the presidential election is deeply damaging for Fianna Fáil and Taoiseach Micheál Martin.
Acting as a landlord without being registered and failing to return an overpayment of rent were revelations that fatally undermined a campaign that was already struggling . Before the latest controversy erupted, Gavin had appeared poorly prepared and struggled to get his point across. Fianna Fáil had underestimated how difficult it can be, in the absence of exceptional skills as a public communicator, to handle the relentless and punishing demands of a media-driven political campaign for the first time.
Despite his many impressive achievements in life, Gavin was unable to articulate why he was running for president. That made it hard for his campaign to resonate with the public – even though his two rivals for the office had their own manifest shortcomings. Now it has ended prematurely and Martin is left facing some searching questions from his own benches as well as from a voting public that has an even smaller field of candidates to choose from.
While Fianna Fáil’s parliamentary party endorsed Gavin’s candidacy – the Oireachtas members now distancing themselves from their candidate should remember that – the idea was apparently conceived and driven by Martin himself. The party has said it knew nothing about Gavin’s record as a landlord and that the issue came to a head over the weekend when the former tenant contacted the party. But what if any due diligence was conducted by party officials? Did Gavin and his sponsors not realise the extent of the scrutiny he would face once the campaign had begun?
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And so now, for the first time since 1973, there are just two candidates for the presidency: Catherine Connolly and Heather Humphreys. Both have significant weaknesses as candidates, and no doubt a share of the voting public will feel they have nowhere to go, but the line-up does at least clarify the contest as one between right and left. Who that ultimately benefits is still unclear. Connolly is the bookmakers’ favourite, but with a few weeks to go before polling day, it’s still all to play for.
Connolly’s supporters will seek to frame the contest as the Government versus the Opposition. Given public dissatisfaction with policies in areas such as housing – and the likelihood that today’s budget will be unpopular – this is an obvious and rational tactic, even if the president’s influence in these policy areas is very limited. Humphreys, a former Fine Gael minister, will try to retain party support while also distancing herself somewhat from the current Government. It remains to be seen whether Fianna Fáil voters will support her. Where those voters go now is what will decide the outcome.
