Nigel Farage, one of the chief architects of Brexit, is shaping the UK political narrative through his relentless focus on migration. Just as with Brexit, there could be significant consequences for Ireland.
At this week’s Conservative party conference, leader Kemi Badenoch announced that she would withdraw the UK from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) if she becomes prime minister after the next general election in 2029. The move is an obvious attempt not to be outflanked by Farage’s Reform UK on the hot button issue of migration. At his party’s conference last month, Farage had already pledged to withdraw the UK from the ECHR, if Reform forms the next government.
The ECHR is one of the foundation stones of the Belfast Agreement. It guarantees the rights of citizens based on international oversight and its removal would trigger a review with an uncertain outcome.
So far, Farage has blithely dismissed any concerns about the implications of withdrawing from the ECHR. Indeed, he has offered assurances that a subsequent renegotiation would be swift and seamless. Hilary Benn, the UK secretary of state for Northern Ireland, has quite rightly described the ECHR threat as “reckless”. Tánaiste Simon Harris has said it is a fundamental part of the agreement that cannot be negotiated away.
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One of the fall-outs from Brexit was to heighten discussion of a Border poll on Irish unity. Much work would be required on complex and sensitive political, cultural and economic issues before that could be an immediate prospect.
Against this backdrop, a Westminster government threatening to undermine the Belfast Agreement would create unwelcome instability and uncertainty. And Reform’s soaring popularity makes its presence in the next government a clear possibility.
Reform and the Tories should both consider the wider consequences of withdrawing the UK from the ECHR and not just focus on the misguided belief that it would reduce migration flows.
