With the next general election a very distant prospect, opinion polls on voting intentions should be treated with caution. But today’s Irish Times/Ipsos B&A survey offers a revealing snapshot of the current political landscape that will make uncomfortable reading for the Government parties.
Fianna Fáil has suffered a sharp decline in support, down five points to 17 per cent, with drops across most demographics. Satisfaction with Taoiseach Micheál Martin has also fallen steeply, down 11 points to 33 per cent, his lowest rating in five years. With Fine Gael becalmed in the high teens, combined support for the two parties now stands at just 35 per cent, a historic low.
Public satisfaction with the Government has fallen too, to 31 per cent, down five points since July and the lowest level since it took office. The response to the recent budget, combined with the poor performance of Government presidential candidates, has clearly influenced voter sentiment. The poll suggests a perception has taken hold that the budget favoured sectoral reliefs over the needs of ordinary people.
At 27 per cent, Sinn Féin has once more become the country’s most popular party, a title it held for much of the last Dáil. Its strategists will be mindful that a much larger lead was lost in the period before last November’s general election and will be determined to avoid a repetition.
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There is one notable difference between then and now. Over the course of this Dáil, Sinn Féin has worked more closely with other parties and independents of the left. That cooperation has culminated in the current broad coalition which, if this week’s polling is borne out, seems poised to deliver the presidency to Catherine Connolly.
Presidential elections are very different from Dáil contests and voters approach them with a different set of priorities. But the Connolly campaign has shown what a credible alternative to the dominance of the Civil War parties might look like. It has brought together a loose alliance of social democrats, socialists and nationalists who, despite their differences, have found common purpose and a shared message.
That alliance remains untested on the more demanding terrain of parliamentary electoral politics. It is one thing to rally behind a presidential candidate or to combine in criticism of unpopular Government measures. It is quite another to agree a coherent set of policies across such a diverse set of parties.
For the Government parties, the lesson may be simple. Long-term delivery on housing, infrastructure and public services is essential. But in the short term voters also also expect clarity, coherence and conviction. The presidential campaign is showing that in politics, competence must be accompanied by a persuasive story of purpose and direction.
