In the US, an election is never far away. Even in an off-year such as this, with 12 months still to go before the congressional midterm contests, voters have been back at the polls. This week’s results offer an early, if imperfect, glimpse of the political temperature ten months into Donald Trump’s second term.
Any attempt to treat Tuesday’s outcomes as a reliable forecast for next year should come with a health warning. The most eye-catching result, Zohran Mamdani’s victory in New York’s mayoral race, unfolded in a city where Democrats dominate. The gubernatorial wins of Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey occurred in states that lean Democratic. Given Republican control of the White House and both houses of Congress, a backlash was built in.
Still, Democrats will allow themselves a moment of relief. These performances arrive at the close of a bleak year defined by self-doubt and internal recriminations after the party’s heavy defeat 12 months ago. Its base, newly energised by frustration with Donald Trump’s agenda and acute anxiety over the direction of the country, turned out in force. Down-ballot gains in Pennsylvania and elsewhere underscore a familiar dynamic: Democrats do better when Trump himself is not on the ballot.
The party’s leaders, however, know these triumph can turn out to be a mirage. They are still grappling with the consequences of their success in the 2022 midterms, which removed any serious internal challenge to Joe Biden’s re-election campaign. That decision lingers as a source of bitterness among many Democrats who believe a generational shift should already be underway.
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The strategies deployed by this week’s winners illuminate the party’s unresolved contradictions. Mamdani’s unapologetically progressive platform, including positions on Palestine that unsettle traditional party power brokers, stands in contrast to the centrist posture struck by Spanberger and Sherrill. Their pitch to voters focused on courting suburban moderates who deserted Democrats in 2024. These differences reflect distinct electoral landscapes. But they also reveal deeper ideological fissures that will shape the party’s identity ahead of the 2028 presidential race.
Perhaps the most consequential vote did not involve a candidate at all. California governor Gavin Newsom’s push to redraw the state’s congressional boundaries – potentially handing Democrats several additional seats – passed with ease. It marks the latest escalation in a nationwide gerrymandering arms race, initiated by Republicans in Texas and now fully reciprocated. This manipulation of electoral maps by both parties is a shameful abandonment of democratic principles. For Newsom, who harbours clear presidential ambitions, it is nonetheless a signal to Democrats that he is willing to fight Trumpism on its own terrain.
