Fewer global leaders than usual will gather in Brazil this week in advance of the Cop30 annual climate negotiations. It is yet another dispiriting indication that efforts to counter a worsening climate crisis, facing every country that backed the landmark Paris Agreement a decade ago, are weakening.
Optimism and commitments in “nationally-determined contributions” (NDCs) have given way to a row-back on pledges and new forms of climate denial, such as baulking at anything that might imperil competitiveness. New EU targets this week remain ambitious, but have pulled back on earlier commitments. Global cooperation is stalled amid geopolitical tensions and wars. There is a worsening toll from extreme weather events, exacerbated by fossil fuel burning.
The erratic imposition of US tariffs has upended economic stability, while president Donald Trump’s reversals on clean energy policy, his vengeful scuppering of renewable energy projects and dismissal of science have spooked investors. Many countries are distracted from transitioning to clean, affordable energy as they struggle with competing goals such as food security, high electricity costs or the AI revolution.
As the leaders and negotiators sit around the table in Belém, they will be reminded of the latest UN analysis indicating that without immediate, aggressive action the world is on track to endure a global average temperature rise of up to 2.8 degrees above pre-industrial levels this century – creating impossible living conditions for whole populations and obliterating vital ecosystems.
READ MORE
There is a narrowing timeframe for action so proven solutions must be applied with unprecedented focus on delivery. The critical lever can be coalitions of countries pushing for higher ambition that will pull others along with them. Their numbers have grown in recent years, with Ireland among the countries making the case for moving rapidly, though its climate action at home has been marginally successful at best.
The Cop process, imperfect as it is, has legitimacy and remains a platform for global action. The indications for Cop30 are not as dismal as some suggest. China’s updated NDC comes with some credibility as it has become the global leader on renewable energy, by some distance. UN climate chief Simon Stiell has predicted “NDCs will be among the most important policy documents this century because they can accelerate economic transformation, driving more economic growth, jobs, affordable and secure energy, cleaner air and better health”.
If Cop30 can somehow put on a show of unity among countries sticking with the task in the best interests of humanity, and ensure stronger flows of climate finance for vulnerable countries, it will have done a good fortnight’s work. But success is far from guaranteed.
