The notion of what constitutes the correct level of inward migration is highly subjective and can owe more to economics than political expediency.
But accommodation pressures and a swing in the political mood has led Minister for Justice Jim O’Callaghan to conclude that the State has exceeded an arbitrary population growth limit set by him.
On Wednesday the Cabinet approved plans put forward by him to reduce the flow of immigrants. The centrepiece is a limit on family reunifications, which are a significant multiplier of both immigration via work permits and successful applications for international protection.
Under the proposed changes only immediate family – spouses, partners and children – will qualify and the immigrants must demonstrate they have the resources to support them. The pathway to Irish citizenship for immigrants will be narrowed. The residency period for successful international protection applicants will be extended from two to five years and applicants for citizenship will have to demonstrate they have contributed to the State.
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The measures resemble in some respects those announced by the United Kingdom government. The reality of our open border with the UK provides some political cover for O’Callaghan but it is arguable as to whether he really needs it in the current climate of public concern about immigration.
The Irish and British governments have taken their lead from Denmark, where a left of centre government has led a clamp-down on migration rather than cede ground to the right.
At the core of the Danish response – and the measures announced by O’Callaghan – is the goal of making the country a cold place for unwanted immigrants. Or at least colder than other countries.
This strategy is a zero-sum game at the international level with countries locked into a downward spiral in terms of the treatment of migrants that requires increasingly fraught political and legal gymnastics by governments to deny they are in breach of human rights obligations. It also has the potential for unintended consequences in terms of attracting the migrants that any serious analysis of the Irish economy concludes are going to be needed in substantial numbers.
The overtly political nature of what is proposed by O’Callaghan cannot be denied but it has to be seen in the context of widespread, if exaggerated, public concern. The best thing that can be said of it is that it should buy the Government more time to resolve the tangible problems around the processing and accommodation of asylum seekers. But addressing the wider issues around housing and inequality is a different challenge – and one the Government is not close to resolving.
