After a fortnight of street demonstrations and protests against inflation and poor government, events in Iran have reached a decisive point for the clerical regime’s survival. Its main options are a continuation of brutal repression plus retrenchment or reform initiatives at home alongside an international nuclear deal with the United States and other powers.
The regime lacks the ability to fund reforms unless it shows a readiness to negotiate a relaxation of the sanctions crippling its economy. That would be the better path, avoiding the chaos of civil war, but the regime is instead resorting to full-scale attacks on protestors, leading to reports of many deaths.
These tactics have drawn harsh international criticism and threats of US intervention, leading to Iranian warnings to Washington this weekend of the potential consequences if it gets involved.
The geographical range of these protests and their social width indicate the severe challenge they pose to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s ruling regime. Ineffective government, rampant corruption and runaway inflation driven by international pressure all feed into the popular anger.
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Food prices have increased by over 70 per cent as the rial’s value collapsed against the dollar, while energy exports have fallen. The protests are strong in provincial towns all over Iran and are not restricted to the largest urban centres. Demonstrators are demanding fundamental political changes as well as immediate relief.
Blackouts on internet services and a speech by Ayatollah Khamenei attacking the protesters as traitors manipulated by the US, Israel and the exiled monarchist Reza Pahlavi confirm the regime has turned to repression, after initial signs of confused restraint. It has a formidable array of paramilitary forces and has mobilised the revolutionary guards, a key pillar of its power.
The last round of national protests by women’s movements in 2022 led to significant reforms. This time the threat to the regime itself poses different challenges, including whether it has the political capacity to change strategic direction domestically and internationally. Its one major advantage is the weakness of the opposition, fragmented after years of regime consolidation.
International pressure on Iran is high following military attacks by Israel and the US on its nuclear plants, disruption of its regional proxies and the devastating effects of sanctions. The regime’s failure to keep its negotiating options on nuclear plans open is partly to blame for this. Its principal alternative option now is to reopen negotiations with the US and other powers in the hope that this can open a pathway to de-escalate this existential crisis. But for now the death toll is mounting and the war of words with Washington is building with potential consequences not only for Iran but also the wider region.
