Escalation in the Middle East

Israel's decision to go for maximum response after the provocative capture of two of its soldiers by Hizbullah militants has …

Israel's decision to go for maximum response after the provocative capture of two of its soldiers by Hizbullah militants has brought the Middle East to its most dangerous level of instability in recent times. Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert's description of this as an act of war by the Lebanese government, in which Hizbullah has two ministers, was followed by a sharp escalation of official rhetoric about the need for a military campaign to change the rules of the regional game. International pressure is urgently needed to scale down the tension.

Israel is faced by a conflict on two fronts: against Hamas and Hizbullah, which have now acted in concert. As the Israeli government sees it, these movements represent the most malign and genocidal forces in the Middle East: extremist, jihadist and terrorist, opposing Israel's existence in principle, rejecting a peace process and indelibly bound up with Islamic extremism. This characterisation underwrites its policy towards the recent increase of tension, which operates on two levels.

Mr Olmert has, first of all, refused to accept a prisoner swap in return for the Israeli soldier being held in Gaza, and he rejects Hizbullah's similar demand. His decision to escalate the Israeli response in Gaza to the capture of the soldier - by collectively punishing the civilian population through attacks on electricity and water plants and preparing a long and gruelling military operation - can only be explained as a strategy to make the Palestinians accountable for the Hamas government they freely elected last January.

There is a strong effort to carry the United States and the European Union along with the policy, following the withholding of aid and demands that Hamas recognise and negotiate with Israel. But this disregards the political evolution which is going on in Hamas, the several reasons for its popular appeal and the inevitable pragmatism arising from its governing. These potentially hopeful developments bore fruit in the agreement reached two weeks ago between Hamas and Fatah. The move was overshadowed by the Hamas abduction and, in turn, the Israeli escalation.

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The same political logic is being followed with Hizbullah in Lebanon. There is military action on a large scale, combined with a refusal to bargain about prisoners. It is calculated internationally and regionally to identify Syria and Iran as sponsors of Hizbullah and force the Lebanese government to disarm the movement.

This maximalism is in some part an uncertain response by the new Israeli government. It lacks strong ex-military figures and is vulnerable to charges that the Hamas and Hizbullah capture of Israeli troops caught it unawares. International pressure should be applied urgently to de-escalate the tension and offer mediation. Hamas cannot have it both ways: the armed struggle and respect for its government. Hizbullah actions from Lebanon are also a major concern. The region's stability is threatened.