Finding a stable government

Now that the people have spoken, party leaders have a responsibility to put together a government that reflects the broad aspirations…

Now that the people have spoken, party leaders have a responsibility to put together a government that reflects the broad aspirations of the electorate. It should not be based on a simple mathematical computation. Challenging tasks lie ahead in an uncertain economic climate and, in any coalition arrangement, it will take political courage, cohesion and imagination to surmount them.

Ireland is one of the most open economies in the world but its competitive edge has been blunted. Inflation is double the EU average. We are overly dependent on fossil fuels. Public services are expensive and inadequate. There is a poor planning regime. The housing market is undergoing what is called a correction. These issues will require competent handling if our recently-acquired prosperity is to be protected.

In less than three weeks, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern is due to go before the 30th Dáil to propose the composition of a new government. Given the outcome of the election, where Fine Gael was the only political party to gain seats, the voters opted for incremental, rather than the fundamental, change offered by Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte.

The Taoiseach is aware of all of that. The timeframe set for the formation of the new government, June 14th, may not be achievable, if special party conferences have to be held. But that is not important. The real task now is to guarantee a stable government.

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Already, there are signs of the shape of things to come. Mr Ahern - the master of the oblique message - emphasised the primary importance of stability in government over the weekend. His preferred coalition is a minority government with support from the Independent TDs. He will consult with Mary Harney and the Progressive Democrats during the coming days - if he has not done so already - in recognition of their contribution to the success of his past governments. Ms Harney is willing to continue in the health portfolio. That would give him 80 seats. He will then treat with the Independents. There are two from the Fianna Fáil gene pool - Jackie Healy-Rae and Beverly Flynn. The new elements to be entertained, however, are the left-leaning duo, Tony Gregory and Finian McGrath. If Mr Ahern wanted to be imaginative, he should tie Mr Gregory into the government by offering him a minister of state portfolio dealing with drugs. His brother's old job.

As a back-up, the Green Party is grappling with the publicity glare of moving centre stage. It has the six seats required to provide a Dáil majority. But questions are being asked about how it would deal with cabinet responsibility on all policy decisions. Rightly or wrongly, it is being assumed that the Labour Party will not participate in the formation of the next government.

Another significant development is the status accorded by the Taoiseach to the Minister for Finance, Brian Cowen. He is clearly the leader-in-waiting. He, with Mr Ahern, will decide the composition and policies of the new coalition government.