Fine Gael's offer to reduce stamp duty and to increase tax relief for single-income families and carers has caught the Government on the hop and given a boost to the prospect of a rainbow coalition. As Ministers exploited an "unrivalled opportunity" to represent Ireland overseas during the St Patrick's Day celebrations, Fine Gael availed of their absence to offer an unchallenged package of tax concessions to the electorate.
It was a clever piece of political timing. The package was designed to counterbalance pre-election commitments on stamp duty already made by the Progressive Democrats and to wrongfoot Fianna Fáil. Fine Gael's concessions have been carefully targeted to appeal to young home-buyers and to an estimated 400,000 single-income households. While there is no doubting the superficial attractiveness of stamp-duty cuts, however, such measures may not actually reduce the cost of housing if builders bump up prices.
Fine Gael's spokesman on finance Richard Bruton has denied that the increased tax relief offered to single-income families is an attempt to row back on the individualisation measures introduced by Fianna Fáil's Charlie McCreevy to encourage both parents to work. But he said that approach had gone far enough and, in future, tax relief should be shared equally between one and two-income families.
Taken in tandem with a cut in the standard rate of income tax offered by the Labour Party leader, Pat Rabbitte, at his party conference last month, a broad outline of the fiscal approach of the alternative government parties is taking shape. There is, however, scope for further embellishment. Particular attention will be paid to election promises likely to be made by Taoiseach Bertie Ahern at Fianna Fáil's ardfheis next weekend. And the Fine Gael leader, Enda Kenny, may fine-tune the agenda at his party's conference seven days later.
Although an election has not been declared, the campaign is in full swing, with the most intense competition occurring in the areas of law and order and taxation. Criminal justice legislation is about to be rushed through the Dáil. And, in the coming weeks, the emphasis is likely to switch to matters concerning health and education, with consultants' contracts, quality of care and class sizes moving to the top of the political agenda.
A recent surge in support for the Green Party has emphasised the vulnerability of the Government. And while that weakness was addressed through a new energy policy and commitments on the environment, it is not clear whether the rot has stopped. Fianna Fáil will be worried by an opinion poll pattern evident during the last two years, when it lost six percentage points between January and June. Fine Gael and the Labour Party will be determined, with the help of a joint policy programme, to repeat that pattern. But Fianna Fáil has shown itself to be resilient and creative in the past. A determined fightback can be expected next weekend.