Last week German foreign minister Heiko Maas made an unnecessary journey. He got up very early and flew to Dublin. At 9am he was in Dublin Castle to address the annual gathering of the Irish diplomatic corps. And at first, it seemed hard to understand why he had bothered. His speech began with a corny story that Simon Coveney had told him about how he and his siblings were in the middle of the ocean on a sailing trip.
As a joke they sent out a message that they were having a birthday party and all nearby ships were welcome to join. But, said Maas, a German yacht heard the words “Irish” and “party” and suddenly appeared alongside them, bringing a keg of beer.
What the Brexiteers have always believed is that the EU is essentially a front for Germany
Very significant statement from Germany's foreign minister that the EU would be prepared to reopen talks if and when the Withdrawal Agreement is defeated in the Commons. https://t.co/jUrEoCdMFS
— Owen Paterson MP (@OwenPaterson) January 15, 2019
So far, so toe-curling: Ireland, parties, beer. Was this cliched stuff really worth getting out of bed so early for? Except that Maas then went on to make a passionate defence of the Irish backstop to the withdrawal agreement between the UK and the EU, claiming the avoidance of a hard border not as an Irish issue but, remarkably, as “a question of identity for the European Union”.
And in his peroration, the point of the cheesy story he had begun with was made clear: “When seas get rough, don’t forget that a friendly German boat may be close.”
His nautical metaphor acquired further resonance this week when floundering Brexiteers seized on Maas himself as the lifeboat coming to save them. On Tuesday, as the debate on the withdrawal treaty was about to begin, Westminster was buzzing with word of new remarks by the German foreign minister: “If it goes wrong tonight, there could be further talks.”
As the hard Brexiteer Owen Paterson posted on Twitter: “Very significant statement from Germany’s foreign minister that the EU would be prepared to reopen talks if and when the withdrawal agreement is defeated in the Commons.”
War reversal
It is hard to overstate the importance of this possibility in the minds of those who have driven the Brexit project. What they have always believed is that the EU is essentially a front for Germany. In the weird psychodrama that has been running in their heads, the Germans effectively reversed the result of the second World War.
The EU allowed them to do by economic and political means what they had failed to do by military means: dominate and control Britain. But this dark fantasy has in their minds a happy ending: since the Germans really run the EU, the whole tedious business of negotiating with Brussels is a sham. In the end the deal will be done in Berlin.
Hence the glee of former Brexit secretary David Davis after the withdrawal agreement was so savagely shredded in the Commons: “The truth is now coming home to roost for Angela Merkel. I’ve always said that the Germans would sit it out and see who blinks first. It’s plain as a pikestaff – if it’s coming down to no deal, they’ll renegotiate, either before March 29th or shortly afterwards.”
There is still a belief that, at the last moment, Europe's dread of a no-deal Brexit will trump everything else
So all Britain has to do is hold its nerve up to and beyond a no-deal exit. Then the Germans will understand that the British pluck that saw them off in 1945 is still alive. They will issue the appropriate orders to their minions to drop the backstop and give Britain all the benefits of EU membership with none of the burdens.
Wilful ignorance
The problem here is not just the fantasy. It is the wilful ignorance. In seizing on Maas as their saviour, Davis and his allies were obviously unaware of his visit to Dublin a week earlier and his very deliberate decision to define the Irish Border as a fundamental issue of identity for the EU. Nor did they pay any attention to what Maas had actually said on the morning of the Commons vote: before saying that talks might be reopened, he had stressed that “I doubt very much that the agreement can be fundamentally reopened. If there were a better solution, it would already have been put forward.”
This is why British politics remain paralysed: there is still a belief that, at the last moment, Europe’s dread of a no-deal Brexit will trump everything else. British nerve and grit will force the Germans, yet again, to surrender. In this mentality, there is a double bluff – if we show that we are willing to take the pain of no-deal, we won’t have to take the pain of no-deal.
In the early days of next week, this bluff will be called, not by the Germans but by the House of Commons itself. Theresa May has been riding two horses: trying to reassure increasingly desperate businesses that no-deal is not an option while trying to keep the threat of no-deal as a bargaining chip with the EU. But she is no longer in charge – parliament is. And it is abundantly clear that most of its members want no-deal off the table.
The Brexiteers will call that a failure of nerve. Everyone else will see it as an overdue realisation that the German lifeboat is too busy in Ireland’s rough seas to come to the rescue of a sinking British project.