The disappearance and probable death of Jamal Khashoggi is a tragedy and a mystery. It is also a grievous blow to American policy in the Middle East.
To the extent that the Trump administration had a Middle East strategy, it centred on Saudi Arabia and the mercurial figure of Prince Mohammed bin Salman - or MbS, as he is always known. The Saudi crown prince was meant to be the man who would rally an alliance against Iran, make peace with Israel, take on the clerical establishment in his own country and help to crush Isis at home and abroad. By his own account, he would also liberalise Saudi society and transform the economy - delivering juicy deals to US companies in the process.
The centrality of Saudi Arabia to Donald Trump’s world view was underlined when the US president made his first official trip overseas to Riyadh, the Saudi capital. MbS quickly struck up a close relationship with Jared Kushner, Mr Trump’s son-in-law. Both men are in their thirties and together they plotted to remake the geopolitics of the Middle East.
The MbS charm offensive went well beyond Mr Trump’s family. The crown prince held court with star-struck western journalists. He sent chatty texts to Washington insiders. On a trip to the US, MbS rubbed shoulders with American royalty - Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg and Rupert Murdoch.
However, even some of the MbS fan club reserved judgment. As one western observer of Saudi Arabia puts it: “My question was always where to place him on the spectrum between Lee Kuan Yew and Saddam Hussein.”
In other words, should MbS be seen as a visionary nation builder or an out-of-control despot?
Those who argued that the Saudi leader was, above all, dangerous had plenty of disquieting evidence to point to: a spiralling war in Yemen that has produced a humanitarian disaster; a bitter feud with neighbouring Qatar, culminating in a Saudi-led blockade; the temporary imprisonment of the prime minister of Lebanon; a shakedown of many of Saudi Arabia’s richest businessmen; and the imprisonment of journalists and human rights activists - some of whom, like Mr Khashoggi, had fled abroad.
Yet, despite all this, the conventional wisdom on MbS in western foreign ministries remained that he was basically “a good thing” - if a little impetuous. The crown prince’s decision to allow women to drive was a masterstroke in the battle to influence world opinion. His tacit alliance with Israel in checking Iran was also critical in keeping him in the good books of the White House. But the apparent murder of Mr Khashoggi has already transformed western attitudes to MbS. For all the sophistication with which he has manipulated opinion-formers in the US and Europe, the crown prince clearly failed to understand the potential impact of an action that was so brutal and brazen.
Unlike the Yemeni families who have fallen victim to Saudi bombs, Mr Khashoggi had a column in the Washington Post. The American media is now in full cry and Congress is threatening to impose sanctions on Saudi Arabia. Even Mr Trump has promised “severe” consequences if Saudi guilt is proved.
Nonetheless, even though the US will now have to shed its illusions about MbS, it may not ultimately shift its policies all that much. Western officials are keenly aware of the economic and strategic importance of Saudi Arabia. The kingdom is the world’s largest exporter of oil and its largest importer of arms.
With oil prices already rising as renewed sanctions on Iran kick in, the Saudi role as a swing producer becomes even more important. The export-obsessed Mr Trump has already made clear that he is extremely reluctant to cede the Saudi arms market to Russia or China - and he is not alone in this concern, although he is unusually frank about it.
Without a good relationship with Saudi Arabia, US influence in the Middle East will slide even further. Unlike America, the Russians can now boast of a solid relationship with all the key regional powers - including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Egypt and Turkey. Russia’s military intervention in the Syrian conflict also means that Moscow is now playing a much more active role than Washington in Syrian peace talks that could shape the balance of power across the region.
The US, which used to be the undisputed kingpin in the region, currently has a much more limited set of relations than Russia. America has cut all channels to Iran, and its relations with Turkey are likely to remain fraught - despite the Turks’ release from prison of Andrew Brunson, an American pastor who had been detained for two years on espionage charges. If the US now carries through on the threat of “severe” punishment for Saudi Arabia, it will also alienate the Gulf states, and could leave it without any close allies in the region - apart from Israel.
For that reason, it is likely that the Trump administration will do its best to limit the diplomatic fallout from the Khashoggi affair - and that even Congress will tread carefully. Given the grim realities of realpolitik, it is hard to blame them for that. But the idea that the US can build a grand strategy around the maniacal figure of MbS will have to be abandoned. “Put not your trust in princes” was always sound advice.
Gideon Rachman is a Financial Times columnist