I mentioned the by-election a couple of weeks ago. At the time I thought it would be impossible for Fianna Fail to win it. Fine Gael, in the comely shape of Simon Coveney, ultimately did prevail - but in bizarre fashion. The predicted walk in the park became an uphill struggle which became a walk in the park again.
At first glance this looks like a good result for Fine Gael - a comfortable win in a by-election against a popular government. But the reality is a little less straightforward. From the outset Fine Gael was in a no-win situation. With so many advantages, including a candidate who was the son of an extremely popular former deputy who died in tragic circumstances and a Fianna Fail prospect (unknown to many) attempting to win a fourth seat in a five-seater constituency, it had to win and win by a substantial majority. Anything less would be a failure.
During the last two weeks of the campaign the situation looked far from comfortable for Fine Gael and in particular for its leader, John Bruton, who had virtually dictated the outcome of the party's convention. The opinion polls had the two frontrunners neck and neck. This unexpected situation resulted in the wheeling out of the party leaders in the hope that their presence would persuade the voters one way or the other.
Already under pressure because the anticipated landslide didn't seem to be on the way, John Bruton commenced pressing the flesh. And, according to every report I've read, did not press it very well. He seemed bemused by the "ordinary" people with whom he was brought into contact. The Taoiseach, on the other hand, performed on the hustings with aplomb.
His ability during a canvass is considered mysterious by many. "Charisma" is attributed to him as though it is a power beyond our ken. The truth is much simpler. Bertie Ahern likes people and talks to them about the things that concern them. You'll never find him, accomplished in the arts of economics and fiscal policy though he is, lecturing people on Gross Domestic Product or boom-and-bust cycles. He'll talk jobs and the money in their pockets, with maybe a little GAA or soccer thrown in.
We will never know what effect the deployment of the heavy hitters would have had because RTE stepped, no, blundered in. The infamous "quiz" was broadcast and in the final four days of the campaign Sinead Behan lost 7 per cent of the vote.
Not surprisingly, Bertie Ahern was livid. RTE responded by saying it had made a mistake. It had taken the tape from wherever it was being stored, inserted it in a recorder connected to the Today with Pat Kenny mixing desk, pressed "play" instead of "erase" or "record" (they were trying to blank the tape) and the output from the recorder was broadcast. It was a terribly unfortunate sequence of events hardly covered by the word mistake.
Judging by the feedback I have heard, this was doubly unfortunate. Sinead Behan did extremely well in a constituency where her party already had its quota of seats - a fact which came up again and again at the doors during the canvass. She impressed everyone who heard or saw her and she will cause headaches in the next general election for her party's three sitting deputies. She is, as she said herself, there for the long haul and is exactly the kind of young, bright, articulate woman every political party needs for the millennium. Between her overall performance and the pre-quiz share of the vote Fianna Fail was winning, Bertie Ahern has every reason to be pleased with the byelection. Barring further "mistakes", that constituency has the potential to be one of the most interesting battlegrounds of the next general election.
Labour activists should also be happy. The party always had its work cut out. Even though Toddy O'Sullivan had the experience and the intimate knowledge of the area he was never going to win the seat. To have improved on Labour's figures in the last general election will have satisfied Ruairi Quinn. He has, so far, managed to rebuild and reinvigorate a party mauled at the last general election. Labour is looking attractive again and seems to have caught the eye of the former and formidable Democratic Left TD Kathleen Lynch. She came out strongly in favour of Labour during the campaign, leading one to speculate on the "will they, won't they" romance between the parties.
The party which has done worst from the whole episode was the Progressive Democrats. It is not that long ago since they had two TDs in the second city. This time out their first-preference votes were measured in the hundreds. Limping home in this race behind Sinn Fein was not acceptable.
And there is a grimmer possibility lurking in the future. What would happen if the party's two most senior deputies - who between them have been around a very long 63 years - decided to call it a day? Could the PDs survive with just one deputy apart from the leader? Mary Harney is about to head off on a countrywide tour. What, exactly, she is intending to achieve by this is unclear. What she needs to consider is the future of the party - whether it can survive at all with its present personnel and policies or whether a very different Progressive Democrats is the way forward. When it was formed the party was touted as mould-breaking. She must seriously consider whether it is time to break the mould again.
The by-election has raised another unexpected possibility. The transfer of votes from Labour to Fianna Fail was perhaps stronger than most had predicted. What if this were to be repeated around the country at the general election? And what if Fianna Fail failed to get enough seats for the fabled majority government? And what if the Progressive Democrats were annihilated? Then logically a FF/Labour coalition could be on the cards once again.
Whatever about the "ifs", "buts", "ands" and "maybes", Simon Coveney won and congratulations to him for that. Like all my former colleagues in Leinster House, I was very fond of his father, a gentleman and a gentle man. From everything I've heard Simon is cut from the same cloth. I would like to wish him well and I hope Fine Gael does not turn up too many more candidates as successful as him.