Sir, – The tempo of the debate on a united Ireland has increased, especially in the last year. This debate is taking place in the absence of definitive data on how many people support reunification.
In order to call a referendum, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland needs information to confirm that it is likely that a majority of people would vote in favour of a united Ireland. Polling results have not provided the certainty required. However, there is a straight-forward way in which the Secretary of State can get solid information on voting intentions. That is to hold an “indicative” (non-binding) vote on the subject.
The indicative vote could be undertaken as part of one Northern Ireland’s regular elections (Assembly, local government, or Westminster general election). A small change to current voting legislation might be required to facilitate the vote. Voters would be presented with a separate voting paper containing the two options – remain in the UK, or join a united Ireland.
Some people believe that we should not discuss this matter because it is a “divisive” issue. Unfortunately, almost every political issue in Northern Ireland is divisive, so this should not be a block on seeking accurate information. The indicative vote is likely to have the side-effect of increasing turnout in the election with which it is held. It is possible that this might disproportionately favour unionist parties in terms of seats won. It is also worth noting that British MPs at Westminster used a system of indicative votes in March 2019 when debating the divisive issue of Brexit.
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To increase participation, and discourage a boycott, the outcome of the vote would be used to determine what happens next. If the indicative vote in favour of a united Ireland was 46 per cent or lower, then the issue could be put to bed for seven years. If the vote for a united Ireland was 47 per cent or higher, then the Secretary of State should prepare the ground for a full, binding referendum within two years. This preparation would include a public information campaign on the two options; detailed discussions with the Irish government and the EU; draft legislation, etc.
There would be a marginal additional cost in printing the indicative voting papers and counting the votes cast, but this would be a small price to pay to end the uncertainty. – Yours, etc,
MARTIN MELAUGH,
Coleraine,
Co Derry.
