Are the Green Party in, or out, of the equation? Taoiseach Bertie Ahern held out the prospect of further negotiations in an article in the Sunday Independentyesterday. When his words are parsed and analysed, however, what he appears to be telling the Greens is that their input to the formation of the next government should concentrate on a sustainable environment and climate change.
He doesn't say that he has already agreed to their objectives internationally. But when it comes to transport, healthcare and education, not to mention corporate donations, these are matters for the majority partner in coalition. The new government's policies have to be, in Mr Ahern's words, "politically sustainable, economically feasible and in the national interest".
Where does that leave the negotiations for the formation of the new coalition government? It is reported that Mr Ahern wants to entice the Progressive Democrats, a selection of the Independents and the Green Party to support him. The bigger numbers would give him cover for his personal difficulties at the Mahon Tribunal. His putative successor, Brian Cowen, apparently, would prefer to form a government without the nuisance of the Greens, if they were to compromise economic policy. There, it seems, matters now stand with four days to the meeting of the 30th Dáil.
Six days of detailed and intensive negotiations with the Green Party failed to produce agreement. Given the difficulties to be surmounted in the time available, however, that might not be the end of the process. Certainly, the Green Party was unwilling to seek approval at a special conference yesterday for the policy package on offer because of differences on climate change, public transport, education, local government planning and the privatisation of healthcare. The issue of whether it was prepared to enter a coalition arrangement with the PDs remains moot. But circumstances and attitudes may change.
Greater clarity about the composition of the new government will become available on Thursday when the new Dáil meets for the first time. While all politicians are obsessed with the election of a taoiseach, the first task of the new Dáil is to elect a Ceann Comhairle. If Mr Ahern has the Greens on board, he will give it to a supporter of his coalition. If he has not, can a member of the Labour Party realistically accept the position? A Dáil has never failed to elect a Ceann Comhairle in the history of this State.
Whatever government is formed will face serious problems. The Taoiseach has already warned of challenging economic conditions ahead as tax revenues fall, the housing market turns, interest rates rise and inflation remains unacceptable high. On this occasion, the situation has been complicated by trade union demands for tax cuts to compensate for higher inflation. The benchmarking issue will be a challenge. A united coalition, whatever its composition, will face serious challenges.