The late PJ Mara knew that a general election was more than just one contest. His formula for Fianna Fáil was to view it as 41 separate contests: a national campaign and one in each constituency. This might seem obvious now. However, he was the first to understand this dynamic, and it remains crucial in understanding who might win on February 26th.
In PJ’s time, elections were principally contested by the three established parties. The economic crisis has caused two major changes to this political landscape. The first is that Sinn Féin is now a party of the establishment. It has daily access to media outlets and has developed an infrastructure of publicly funded researchers and administrators.
The second change is unique among western democracies: the rise of the Independents and “others”. Polls have consistently shown the grouping to be supported by approximately one quarter of the electorate. It draws support from across the political spectrum. What is driving this increase and what consequences could there be for each of the main parties?
The Independents and others' support is a direct result of disillusionment with the established four parties. This is in keeping with a trend apparent across the western world. What is interesting in Ireland is that each element of the "others" is a counterpart for one of the established political parties. People may not be ready yet to forgive these four parties for past sins. Until then, the "others" will remain a feature of the political landscape here.
Take for example Fine Gael. When Lucinda Creighton set up Renua, she established a haven in the "others" grouping for conservative voters who are yet to forgive the main governing party regarding abortion. Moreover her economic policy position is taken from a radical Fine Gael playbook and very similar to that of the Progressive Democrats in the 1987 election. Their success then led directly to Fine Gael losing that contest. Ms Creighton will no doubt be hoping to repeat the formula in 2016.
Similarly, the Social Democrats bear an uncanny resemblance to Labour. One of its three founders is a former Labour minister. The party has developed policies with an eye to the Scandinavian social model, much in the same way Labour has. Both parties' supporters tend to be middle-class and based in Dublin and its surrounding counties. For those voters yet to forgive Labour for austerity policies, the Social Democrats also represents a haven within the "others".
Lightning rod of support
Even Sinn Féin has an “other” problem. The Anti-Austerity Alliance- People Before Profit has consistently out-flanked the party and inflicted some serious setbacks. It has succeeded in making outright opposition to water charges a lightning rod of support in urban working-class neighbourhoods in a way Sinn Féin did not expect. The far left parties’ success may be reflective of a lack of trust in Sinn Féin’s readiness to follow through on its commitments given it is now a party of the establishment.
This leaves one final piece of the "others" puzzle, the Independent Alliance. The grouping seems to be distinct from the rest of grouping in that it does not seem to have developed a national narrative. Instead, leader Shane Ross seems to have taken heed of his friend PJ Mara's advice: local, local, local.
In this respect, the Independents are indeed a counterpart for one of the main political parties: Fianna Fáil. It is true that Mr Ross hasn't cycled across the country building a grassroots-based movement as Sean Lemass did in the 1920s and 30s. However, from an early period in the current Dáil, he has identified strong local representatives across the country who could become part of the grouping. He has driven down many a country lane to meet these people and ask for their support.
Securing the support of poll-topping councillors at an early stage was a key element in the current performance of the Alliance. It is this very focus where Fianna Fáil has traditionally drawn its strength: committed local representatives rooted in their communities and working hard for their electorate.
This factor has consistently allowed the party to blindside commentators focusing on the national campaign alone. It did so in the 2007 general elections and repeated the success in the 2014 local elections. National polls failed to pick up local sources of strength. Today, FF HQ is quietly sitting on constituency polls which show a similar pattern this time, a major cause of concern for Fine Gael strategists.
In 2011, this local strength was swept away by a tide of national anger. However, instead of choosing one of the other established parties, many switchers from FF have gone to the “other” grouping. Given the Independents are closest in appearance to Fianna Fáil, it is they who will continue to benefit most, at least until the party recovers. The Irish political landscape has changed, the Irish people have not.
Rural constituencies
The strength of Independent Alliance candidates in rural constituencies such as Longford-Westmeath is indicative of this. In a previous time in Irish politics, a politician like Roscommon’s
Michael Fitzmaurice
– a talented, can-do professional with a significant local following – would be a member of Fianna Fáil. The grouping’s competitiveness beyond the
M50
is all the more remarkable given its founders, Mr Ross and Finian McGrath, are two Dublin-oriented representatives.
As a result, expect Fianna Fáil and the Independent Alliance to approach the general election as 41 separate contests, just as PJ Mara would advise them. Each will view that strategy as the one which is best to maximise seats and perhaps even deliver a surprising result. After the election, the two may identify with one another. They might even be more inclined to support each other as a consequence.
Taoiseach Martin backed by Minister Ross? An unlikely result. However stranger things have happened in Irish politics.
Paul Sammon is an economist with consultancy Vivid Economics and a former adviser to Fianna Fáil and to Shane Ross. He writes in a personal capacity