Inside Politics:Pat Rabbitte's refusal to be drawn on his likely tactics in the event of a hung Dáil has generated a huge amount of media coverage. The Labour leader may well be able to turn his party's higher profile to his advantage, but he also faces the real danger of undermining his own long-term strategy of attempting to offer the voters a clear alternative in the forthcoming election.
There is an obvious logic to Rabbitte's position of refusing to be drawn on the "what-ifs" of the unknowable election aftermath.
On one level it leaves him some wriggle room if his strategy doesn't come off, and Fine Gael and Labour just don't have the numbers to form a government, while on another it serves to put his party at the centre of the political stage in the run-up to the campaign.
Rabbitte's problem is that if the voters come to the conclusion that he has decided to take out an each-way bet on the result, in the desperate hope of getting into office whichever way the Dáil numbers add up, then his alternative government strategy will be doomed.
Much of the media has already concluded that Rabbitte is preparing the ground for a deal with Fianna Fáil in the event of a hung Dáil, and no matter how unfair he believes that conclusion to be, it represents a real dilemma for him. He will have to deal with it effectively before the campaign proper begins if his alternative government strategy is to remain credible.
Rabbitte's problem is that the behaviour of other political leaders, since Fianna Fáil entered the world of coalition in 1989, has encouraged cynicism about publicly-stated positions. The PD leader, Michael McDowell, jumped into the current controversy by accusing Dick Spring and Labour of a "con job" in 1992, when they went into coalition with Albert Reynolds, having spent the campaign denouncing Fianna Fáil.
By the same token, though, Des O'Malley and the PDs did exactly the same by going into coalition with Charles Haughey in 1989.
In both cases the voters who cast their ballots in favour of Labour and the PDs had no idea that their respective parties would end up in coalition with Fianna Fáil when the dust had settled. Of course, both party leaders had sound political reasons for doing what they did at the time, but their actions undermined previous assumptions about the nature of adversarial politics.
It is in the light of those events that Rabbitte is now being put under pressure to deal with post-election "what-ifs". Were it not for the political history of the past two decades there would be little reason to believe there was any chance of a Labour-Fianna Fáil coalition after the election, no matter what the outcome. Rabbitte has again and again reiterated his desire to get Fianna Fáil out of office. During the week he said publicly that those in Fianna Fáil who expected him to rescue them in the event of a hung Dáil were in for a rude awakening.
If that means anything, it is that he will not attempt to lead Labour into office with Fianna Fáil under any conceivable circumstances.
Most of those making the assumption that he intends doing precisely that are conveniently ignoring the nature of the Labour Party and its procedures when it comes to participation in government.
For a start, Labour can only get involved in a coalition if the party leader gets the endorsement of a delegate conference for such a proposal. Rabbitte has a mandate for a pre-election pact with Fine Gael, in order to put Fianna Fáil and the PDs out of office, and if the two parties have the numbers to form a government by themselves, or with others, the leader should have little difficulty getting a conference to endorse his decision.
If there is a hung Dáil, however, the Fianna Fáil option will come into play only if the party leader decides to reverse his previously stated policy and then sell it to a party conference. Even if senior Labour figures find the lure of office irresistible, the party members will have no such incentive to jettison the platform on which they fought the election, so there is no guarantee that a conference would back such a move.
Another suggestion is that if Rabbitte declines to change horses he might step down or be removed so that a deal with Fianna Fáil could be done by a new leader.
The problem about that is there is no reason to believe Rabbitte will step aside to facilitate a policy he opposes and, in any case, the party leader is elected by the members. The election of a new leader between the general election outcome and the formation of a government is highly unlikely.
Rabbitte's post-election strategy will obviously be influenced by how well his party does. If Labour has a good election he will be in a strong position to take whatever direction he wants but if Labour does well the chances are that the numbers for an alternative government with Fine Gael will be there. If Labour does badly the leader will have to take a lot of responsibility for the result but that doesn't mean the party will necessarily want to do a deal with Fianna Fáil.
Whatever the circumstances, Labour will have great difficulty justifying a decision to put Bertie Ahern back into government without undermining its own credibility far into the future.
Rabbitte badly needs to get the electorate focused on the choice between the Fianna Fáil/PD coalition and the alternative Labour/Fine Gael option, rather than the hypothetical options that will confront him if there is a hung Dáil.
Labour's annual conference next month will provide him with an opportunity to put the speculation about the Fianna Fáil option to rest.