The future viability of the Labour Party has been a matter of debate since the early days of the State. While the party has proved the doomsayers wrong on a number of occasions over the past century, there is little doubt the next election is shaping up to be a make-or-break event for Labour.
The party has been struggling for survival as a serious political force since the general election disaster of 2016. The collapse in support in that election, when it slumped from 37 seats to seven, was a response by the electorate to its role in coalition over the previous five years.
The central task facing that government was cleaning up the mess created by the financial crisis and tackling the jobs crisis which had seen unemployment running at over 16 per cent of the workforce. The courageous decisions taken during that time put the country on the road to economic recovery and led directly to unemployment falling to less than 5 per cent.
The problem was that many of the people who voted for the party in 2011 did so in the belief that the crisis could be solved in some painless fashion. The harsh reality of what had to be done in terms of spending cuts and tax increases obscured the fact that Labour actually achieved a lot during its term.
The trauma of the 2016 result prompted the party to shun government after that election and do the same again after the deeply disappointing 2020 result when its number of seats slipped from seven to a paltry six. Since then it has had difficulty making its voice heard in the noisy confrontation between the Coalition and Sinn Féin.
Distinctive image
Alan Kelly made a determined effort in his keynote address to Labour’s annual conference earlier this month to articulate a distinctive image for the party as a social democratic alternative to the governing coalition on the one hand and to the nationalist aims of Sinn Féin on the other.
Kelly spoiled the impact a week later with his testy exchange in the Dáil with Taoiseach Micheál Martin over what was said in a private conversation about isolation rules for teachers. It was just the latest example of his propensity to use intemperate and belligerent language. The intention is clearly to create some space for himself in the exchanges between the Government and Sinn Féin but all it does is raise doubts about whether he has the temperament for leadership.
Since the morale-boosting election of Ivana Bacik in the Dublin Bay South byelection in June, there have been voices both inside and outside the party suggesting her as a viable alternative leader with the ability to transform the party’s image and give it greater relevance to the concerns of urban voters.
However, it is a big step from winning a byelection in an ideal constituency to leading a party fighting for its life. If Kelly can rein in his angry side and focus on attempting to persuade voters about the positive contribution Labour could make in the next government, he might be able to spark a revival of sorts.
The Social Democrats are vulnerable to a Sinn Féin surge next time around
It is very likely that when the next election comes around there will be a substantial cohort of voters who are tired of the two larger parties in the current government but who do not regard Sinn Féin as a viable alternative. This is a constituency waiting to be persuaded that Labour is the answer to their dilemma.
Transfer votes
Immediately after the 2020 election, it appeared that the Social Democrats might be able to fill that space but its tendency to support the Sinn Féin line at national and local level does not inspire confidence. In any case, it is vulnerable to a Sinn Féin surge next time around.
In the last election, Labour did not need Sinn Féin transfers to elect any of its TDs. By contrast, three of the Social Democrat TDs – Gary Gannon, Cian O’Callaghan and Holly Cairns – would not have been elected without substantial Sinn Féin transfers. At the next election, Sinn Féin will run more candidates so spare surplus votes will not be so readily available. That poses a threat to the Social Democrats and other left-wing TDs dependant on Sinn Féin transfers.
That could leave Labour and the Greens in the pivotal position of being able to determine who leads the next government. Labour shares the commitment of the Green Party to tackle climate change with increased carbon taxes a crucial weapon in the fight. By contrast, Sinn Féin and the hard-left TDs reject carbon taxes as well as property tax.
In his conference speech, Kelly made a thinly disguised attack on Sinn Féin by denouncing populist opponents who peddle myths about introducing tax cuts in tandem with higher public spending. More pertinently, he drew a sharp contrast between social democracy and parties inspired by nationalist ideology, giving a commitment that Labour would not go into coalition with those whose “moral compass” it could not trust. If he can convince voters he is serious on that score he could yet lead his party back into office as part of a progressive democratic coalition.