It is amazing how quickly the tide turns in politics. A month ago Taoiseach Leo Varadkar was widely deemed be on the ropes and his then tánaiste, Frances Fitzgerald, was forced to fall on her sword to avoid a potentially disastrous pre-Christmas election.
Now Varadkar is soaring high in the polls and being acclaimed for taking a hard line against the British by commentators whose natural instinct is to despise government in general and Fine Gael in particular.
Varadkar is probably smart enough to take the current wave of adulation with a grain of salt. He will naturally enjoy it while it lasts but needs to be careful not to overplay his hand.
A lot has been made of the way Varadkar “stood up to the Brits” in the crucial days leading up to the agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom on the first phase of the Brexit talks.
There is little doubt that the Taoiseach benefited from a surge of national pride for the way in which he handled the tense period between the collapse of the first draft of the deal and the emergence of the final draft four days later.
He remained calm and assured throughout and spoke the kind of clear language that has characterised his political career. When the initial deal broke down he eschewed diplomatic niceties and made it clear he intended to hold British prime minister Theresa May to the agreement come what may.
Poll
When it all worked out for the best, albeit with some modifications to reassure Northern unionists, Varadkar was the hero of the hour. An Irish Times poll taken at the height of the controversy confirmed that he had struck a chord with the public.
It reflected the widely-held view that he was clearly justified in taking a strong line in holding the British to their word on the requirement for a soft border. The full backing of our EU partners helped to ensure that he carried the day despite the pressure put on May by the Democratic Unionist Party.
Varadkar will be playing with fire if he takes his newly-acquired nationalist credentials too far
It would be easy, though, to read too much into the episode. Political leaders can expect a boost when they are pitted against foreign governments and are seen to be standing up for their country. When the opponent is the ancient foe the potential political dividends are even greater.
What needs to be remembered, though, is that the deal on phase one of the Brexit talks has still not altered the fundamental fact that if the British stick to their stated aim of leaving the EU customs union there will have to be a hard border of some kind on this island. That may prove difficult to explain to an electorate convinced the problem has been solved by a formula of words.
The substantive Brexit negotiations will be a hard slog through 2018 and while there is no way of knowing for sure how it will all turn out the contradiction at the heart of the phase-one agreement about the status of the Border will have to be confronted at some stage.
Some British commentators have attributed Varadkar’s uncompromising stance to competition for votes with Sinn Féin while closer to home some people have come to the conclusion that he is opening the door to coalition with that party after the next election.
There is not much evidence for either proposition. Fine Gael and Sinn Féin are not in competition for votes and there are very few takers in the Government party for a coalition deal that would undermine everything it has stood for since its foundation.
Middle Ireland
The real competition is between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil for the support of middle Ireland. Wearing the green jersey was the source of Fianna Fáil dominance for generations and it is not so long ago that John Bruton was maliciously dubbed “John Unionist” as a way of discrediting his conciliatory approach to the North.
Varadkar will be playing with fire if he takes his newly-acquired nationalist credentials too far. Inflaming national sentiment when the Brexit talks are still far from their crunch stage and when Northern Ireland is in such a precarious state could have seriously damaging long-term consequences.
The Northern stalemate is really serious and it will take a great deal of effort by everybody involved to get the Belfast Agreement working again. Strident talk is easy, as Sinn Féin and the DUP have demonstrated, but it leads to deadlock.
Fine Gael didn’t compete with Fianna Fáil in beating the nationalist drum for party advantage down the years but tried to act as a force for reconciliation rather than division. That did not always work to the party’s short-term advantage but probably accounts for its resilience during the long years in opposition.
Varadkar’s great strength is that he represents a young, confident, modern Ireland in terms that his contemporaries understand and identify with. He has shown a capacity to widen the party’s appeal but needs to be careful not to discard something of the party’s core identity as he pursues the goal of making Fine Gael the biggest party in the country at the next election.