If the shenanigans of the past seven weeks are indicative of how the “new politics” is going to work then the country is heading for political instability on a grand scale.
This weekend, after all the posturing, we are back to the position on the day of the election count with a Fine Gael-led minority government the only feasible option.
Fianna Fáil and the Independents share most of the responsibility for the way things have developed and unless both quickly display courage and clarity about their intentions a second election will become inevitable.
Micheál Martin had good grounds for refusing to go into coalition with Fine Gael, not just on the basis of his election pledge, but on the likely long-term consequences for the evolution of Irish politics. However, the decision to stay out of coalition required a coherent approach to the facilitation of a minority government but so far there has been no evidence that Fianna Fáil is prepared to do what is required to give such a government a decent chance of survival.
Instead the party flirted with the prospect that it could head a minority government and engaged in a fruitless bidding game with Fine Gael to win over the required number of Independents to make that happen.
That charade finally came to an end last Thursday when 14 Independents came together and refused to be pushed by Martin into opting for Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael.
Guarantees
That put the ball back in Fianna Fáil’s court and the party now has to decide once and for all what kind of guarantees, if any, it is prepared to give to enable a Fine Gael-led government to function.
The Independents also have to decide how many of them are prepared to follow the example of Katherine Zappone and declare for Fine Gael. It appears that most are reluctant to do so as few of them contemplated entering government when they ran for election.
“The fact of the matter is that most of us are natural oppositionists. We were elected to oppose government whoever it is,” said one of the Independents who was being courted by both sides.
If that is true of middle of the road Independents it is even more true of the various shades of left-wing Independents who have made their political careers by denouncing those who carry the responsibility of making decisions, be they ministers or officials.
The heart of the problem is that the Irish electorate has chosen a Dáil containing so many TDs and parties who would prefer to remain in Opposition or even tear down the entire system rather than share in the responsibility for government.
The question for Fianna Fáil is which side of fence it wants to be on. All the talk about “new politics” will be shown up as meaningless unless it can find a way of ensuring that some kind of government can be put in place.
It is one thing for Martin to extol the supposed benefits of minority government but keeping one in place will require the adoption of hard-headed and unpopular positions. There is little sign that Fianna Fáil is prepared for that.
Much of the language used by Fianna Fáil speakers in the few debates the 32nd Dáil has managed to date indicate the party has more in common with the oppositionists of all hues than with those who want to govern the country.
A recurring theme from Martin and his leading spokesman is the supposed “arrogance” of the last government which is actually another way of saying that all of the actions taken to rescue the economy were wrong and that some painless, magic way out of the crisis was available.
Fine Gael also has difficult questions to confront about how a minority government can work. While the party is the biggest in the 32nd Dáil, it is so far short of a majority that there have to be serious doubts how it can legitimately continue in office.
The awareness of that prompted its campaign to woo the smaller parties and Independents in an attempt to cobble together a government that could be presented as a response to the decision given by the electorate but the numbers willing to really engage have been far too few. Fine Gael was particularly anxious to involve the smaller parties but the Social Democrats opted out from the start and the Greens were not far behind. That has put the spotlight back on the Labour Party, despite the decision immediately after its catastrophic election performance that it had no option but to go into Opposition. The seven surviving Labour TDs now have a decision to make about whether they should vote for Enda Kenny for taoiseach to get him across the line, assuming that Fianna Fáil will abstain the next time it comes to a vote.
Deeply reluctant
Fine Gael would dearly like Labour not only to vote for Kenny but to reconsider the decision not to go back into government. That is something the party’s TDs are mulling over this weekend but they are deeply reluctant to accede on the basis that the electorate rejected a Fine Gael-Labour government so it would be difficult to justify its return without the involvement of others.
Some in Fine Gael believe that if Labour came back into the frame, the Greens and even the Social Democrats might be persuaded to join a minority government. If a few Independents were tagged on such a coalition would have a degree of legitimacy not available to a purely Fine Gael administration.
Everything depends, though, on whether Fianna Fáil is prepared to facilitate the survival of any such government. If it is not another election is the only possible outcome.