The biggest problem facing Ireland and the rest of the European Union in the wake of the Brexit decision is that the British don't appear to have any coherent plan for leaving, apart from wanting to have their cake and eat it.
The Irish political and administrative system at least made some preparations for the prospect of a Leave decision but the British themselves don’t seem to have any blueprint for the way ahead.
“The British have made so many mistakes since the initial decision to hold a referendum that we have to work on the assumption that they will continue to make them during the exit process. That could be very dangerous,” said one experienced diplomat based in Dublin.
If the British media is anything to go by, the biggest mistake the country’s government is likely to make is to assume it can retain almost all of the benefits of EU membership without any of the responsibilities.
The bottom line for all other EU members is that the British cannot be seen to do better by leaving rather than staying because, if that happens, then the entire European project would disintegrate.
A common assumption fostered by the British media is that both sides in the negotiations will have an equal incentive to retain the single market. As former Canadian ambassador to the EU and the UK Jeremy Kinsman pointed out in an open letter to David Cameron immediately after the referendum, that is far from being the case.
“You let the Leave side get away with claiming that the EU would negotiate as an equal partner with equal stakes as the UK because the volume of trade was roughly equal. The reality is that respective stakes are starkly unequal. On trade, the UK is dependent on the EU market for 45 per cent of its exports. The EU is dependent on the UK for only 8 percent of EU exports.”
There has naturally been a lot of emphasis here on the importance of retaining the common travel area with the UK and the avoidance, if possible, of tariff barriers between the two countries.
However, the overriding Irish interest lies in the survival of the EU as a vibrant and progressive institution and ultimately that will have to be the priority in long negotiations ahead rather than specifics such as the preservation of the common travel area.
Taoiseach Enda Kenny moved as quickly as possible to meet the leaders of Germany, France and the UK over the past two weeks to try to set out Irish priorities. It is too early to say if, or how, they will be catered for in the long run but at least it has created some awareness that we have particular difficulties.
One thing that has surprised Irish politicians and officials dealing with their counterparts is an awareness across the EU of the particular importance of protecting the institutions established under the Belfast Agreement.
Kenny’s bizarre decision to back the call for a Border poll may have been intended to reinforce this point but instead it detracted from the focus on the core principle of the agreement which was the creation of a framework for peace and reconciliation.
Six months
For the present, all the Irish and other governments can do is to wait for the British to come up with their exit plan as it will probably be at least six months before article 50 of the
Lisbon
Treaty, triggering the process, is invoked.
The appointment of Michel Barnier, the former French minister and European commissioner, as the main negotiator on behalf of the European Commission is a welcome development even if it provoked a predictable round of demonisation in the British media.
What is not in doubt is that Barnier will be a formidable negotiator. He knows the EU internal market operations inside out. He also knows David Davis well from their days as European ministers in the 1990s and that should help to ensure that neither is under any illusions about what is at stake.
Former taoiseach John Bruton suggested during the week that a relationship between EU and UK limited to trade in goods, and to free travel with passport controls, was easily attainable, if the UK is willing to accept EU goods safety standards.
The question, though, is whether the UK will settle for such limited objectives. One of the key British objectives is to retain free movement in services, on which the financial clout of the City of London depends, but that will almost certainly not be available unless the British agree to free movement of people. As immigration was the core reason for the Leave vote, it is difficult to see how that can happen.
Scenarios
A range of scenarios from the
Norway
option, involving full access to the EU market but also acceptance of immigration and a significant contribution to the EU budget, to a complete exit from the EU and the single market, will be explored in the coming years.
One possibility is that all of the options will be so unpalatable the British might ultimately decide that staying in the EU is the least worst option. Theresa May has said this is not going to happen but her decision to put the leading Brexiteers in charge of the negotiations could give her some flexibility.
Already May and one of those negotiators, trade minister Liam Fox, have had a public difference of opinion over strategy and that could well be a sign of tensions to come.
If the best they can ultimately do is clearly worse for the British people than the current position, a referendum on the exit terms might just be possible.