President Michael D Higgins may give the impression that he is a cuddly innocent in a world of ruthless politicians but, as the ongoing “will he, won’t he” speculation about a second term in the Áras demonstrates, he is one of the shrewdest political operators of them all.
By delaying so long in declaring his intentions he has given potential opponents very little time to get organised to mount a realistic challenge to him in a presidential election due in November.
Already Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have made it clear they will not oppose the President if he opts to run for a second term. This is practical politics on the part of both parties, neither of whom could be confident of winning. In any case both have their eyes on the big prize which is the next general election, which could come at any time.
The Labour Party will naturally back the President who, after all, was the party’s candidate last time out. He will not need formal Labour backing, as he can nominate himself for a second term, but the party has every incentive to stress its former chairman’s credentials during a campaign.
There is some confusion about Sinn Féin’s intentions, with party leader Mary Lou McDonald giving her personal view that the party should put up a candidate but stressing no decision has been made.
There is a strong possibility that the party will not, in fact, challenge the incumbent. Sinn Féin sources point out that the President is compatible with them on a range of issues from his republican credentials to his backing for left-wing governments in Venezuela and other Latin American countries.
Sinn Féin has not forgotten that back in 1994 it was Michael D as minister for communications who lifted the long-standing ban on party spokespeople appearing on television and radio. Since then he has had cordial relations with the party and his habit of calling the former party leader Gearóid rather than Gerry was appreciated.
Tactical decision
In the end Sinn Féin will make a tactical decision on what is best for its own long-term future. There is a strong argument for backing a second term for a popular President and claiming affinity with him rather than fighting a battle it is bound to lose.
If Sinn Féin does not offer a challenge it will be down to whether an Independent candidate will emerge. Senator Gerard Craughwell has announced he would like to run while another Senator, Pádraig Ó Céidigh, has been taking soundings.
Realistically, either of them would struggle to make any serious impact. But some other candidate might emerge when the President finally makes his intentions public.
The 77-year-old incumbent has a lot of things going for him. For a start he is popular with the public and is widely regarded as having done a fine job in office. His only Achilles’ heel is his declaration during the presidential election seven years ago that he would not seek a second term.
Opponents would be likely to focus on that issue, particularly in light of the way the President has stressed the need for high ethical and moral standards in public life. Explaining his volte face might be a bit embarrassing but hardly much more than that.
The President’s attachment to a left-wing agenda, which manifested itself in his tribute to Fidel Castro and his consistent criticism of the free-market philosophy which has underpinned the economic policies of successive governments might expose him to attack from a more mainstream opponent.
Oblique criticism A
gainst that, the Irish public has never shown itself to be too concerned about ideological matters. The President’s oblique criticism of Government policy has not sparked serious criticism and, if anything, has fuelled his popularity.
The occupant of the Áras has the luxury of being on the side of the angels without having to make decisions on the day-to-day bread-and-butter issues which inevitably provoke opposition and unpopularity.
The President has shown considerable subtlety in differentiating himself from the Government on issues of high principle without issuing an open challenge which could spark a constitutional crisis.
He has also conducted himself well on the international stage. Along with his wife Sabina he comported himself brilliantly on the first state visit by an Irish President to the UK and has made a good impression on visits to countries around the world.
Most important of all his humanity has shone through. When he was appointed to the cabinet in 1992 the then leader of the Progressive Democrats, Des O’Malley, famously remarked that Michael D would go mad in office. Nothing of the kind happened. When O’Malley’s wife, Pat, one of the most likeable figures in Irish political life, was seriously ill two years ago the President called to see her before she died.
This ability to maintain warm personal relations with people regardless of political differences is one of the President’s greatest strengths and one which should see him safely to a second term.