The Spanish people have made a considered decision in the face of the most extreme circumstances. They have voted for a change of government, conscious of the circumstances in which the decision was presented to them.They have returned the opposition socialists to power, probably in coalition with minority parties.
No more dramatic shift has been seen in Europe's recent political landscape. The lessons about how to respond to terrorism at national and European levels and how to inform the public about who is responsible for it will now have to be fully acknowledged and debated. Confirmation that al-Qaeda is to blame for the deaths and injuries of so many people creates a new political challenge in Europe - and potentially a dangerous new economic one as well, when all this news is absorbed today by anxious markets around the world.
The winning team will have to govern a traumatised and angry people and a Spain that has been changed utterly by these awful events. Before the attacks last Thursday the conservative Partido Popular was widely expected to win the elections, with enough seats to govern alone or more awkwardly in coalition with other parties. Its lead in the opinion polls was based on a strong economic performance over the last eight years, during which a high rate of joblessness was halved, growth was well above the EU average, incomes converging towards it and the country benefited from substantial EU transfers.
Mr Aznar's commitment to the war in Iraq remained unpopular with large majorities of Spaniards, but was not sufficient to displace his economic achievements among the relatively small numbers who normally vote (55 per cent in 2000 compared to some 63 per cent yesterday). Likewise, his aggressive posture on the Basque question and on Eta terrorism consolidated his partisan base, set an agenda the Socialist opposition could not avoid and did not antagonise enough voters to make a crucial difference in this campaign.
The bombings and the government's response dramatically upset these calculations. The widespread and well-founded conviction that Mr Aznar and his colleagues manipulated news of who was responsible for the outrages shifted voters and increased the turnout substantially. Spaniards' belief that it was wrong to join the war has been revived by this horrifying retaliatory terrorism and by anger over the politicisation of the government's initial insistent accusations that Eta was responsible for the outrages. This is notwithstanding the valid point made by its representatives that this could allow al-Qaeda type organisations to set the agenda.
The socialists are pledged to withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq. Their victory will change the political landscape in Spain and Europe. This result concerns Spanish politics and society above all; but its new rulers will now have to come to terms with the threat to democrats the world over.