By the end of this week, the Irish and British governments should be in a position to judge the quality and extent of the commitments by the political parties in Northern Ireland to the terms of the Belfast Agreement.
A flurry of behind-the-scenes activity, along with a series of high profile political meetings in Dublin and London, is expected to establish whether Sinn Féin is prepared to participate in the work of policing boards and the IRA to engage in "acts of completion". At the same time, the willingness of the Ulster Unionist Party to agree to the re-establishment of the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly, in advance of scheduled elections, may become clear.
Many of those who voted for the Belfast Agreement in 1998, on both sides of the border, will have been disappointed by the continuing paramilitary difficulties and the political wrangling that has beset the process. But the Agreement has endured. Large-scale terrorist activity is a thing of the past. And while punishment beatings, gangland thuggery and lethal paramilitary feuds are still an unfortunate feature of society in Northern Ireland, progress has been made. The Police Service of Northern Ireland is building a reputation for impartiality. Amendments to the Northern Ireland Policing Act will provide for greater public accountability and, in certain circumstances, allow former members of paramilitary organisations to participate in the work of district policing boards.
Last November, following suspension of the Executive and Assembly, the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, called for "acts of completion" by republicans and "quantum leaps" that would re-establish trust between the parties and get the Belfast Agreement back on track. There has been a great deal of informal discussion since that time. But the major players have been reluctant to make early commitments, lest they be discounted by their opponents. In spite of that, expectations have been growing within republican communities that the IRA is about to engage in substantial movement.
The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, will attempt to establish the precise nature of any such development today when he meets Mr Gerry Adams in Dublin. Tomorrow, he will discuss the situation with the SDLP leader, Mr Mark Durkan. And, on Thursday, he will have separate talks with Mr David Trimble and Mr Tony Blair in London.
A significant IRA decommissioning act, along with a statement on its future intentions, would create a considerable impetus within the peace process. It would clear the way for Sinn Féin's involvement in local policing bodies. Reports suggest that a scaling back of British Army security operations and the dismantling of border posts might follow. The elements of a new phase in confidence-building between the communities are now present. All that is required is the political will to implement them. The day of once-off gestures has passed.