As an end-of-year report, the recent poll on party support was bad for the Government parties. It’s also predictable, and part of a now-unstoppable trend where any tools in the belts of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to halt their own decline appear nonexistent. But it’s not just current polls that tell a story of where we’re at and where we’re going. Past ones do too.
In the Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll in October 2014, Sinn Féin was also the most popular party in the country, as it is now, but then it was tied with Fine Gael at 24 points each. Sinn Féin has accumulated 11 points in the popularity stakes since then.
Experiencing Sinn Féin’s electoral success in 2020 as a surprise was a sort of tell that one was in denial or out of touch, or both. Time tells a broader story. Since 2014, Fine Gael has dropped four points to where it stands now, a paltry 20 per cent support, which is where Fianna Fáil was at in 2014 – and remains.
That poll in 2014 was the first time Sinn Féin tied in popularity with Fine Gael. October 2014 was also just over a year before the government accidentally engaged the public in a year-long period of reflection about the essence of a republic during the 1916 centenary, which is an under-acknowledged catalyst of attitudinal change when it comes to the existential question of the direction of a nation. Who are we, and what do we want to become?
While Sinn Féin has very obviously become a political force in the 21st century, what's less talked about is how the party is also a cultural force
Burned by Fine Gael’s radical neoliberalism, the electorate is shifting left, and whether it’s actually true or not, people perceive Sinn Féin to be of the left. They believe that it will implement a sort of socialist housing policy; that it offers a big-picture vision for Irish society that’s ambitious and exciting to people. Call it populism, call it fantasy, call it a new direction, but it is what’s attractive to people living in the mess Fine Gael created over a decade. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil do not offer any vision for the future, and so they will be consigned to the past.
Empathetic discourse
Fundamental changes in the disposition of Irish people have occurred. Where all politics used to be local, the 2020 election showed that all politics is now national. Values have changed, underscored by the empathetic discourse that occurred around the marriage equality and abortion referendums. And yet still, it is obvious that many politicians and commentators grapple with the popularity of Sinn Féin. They attack the party with the assumption that pointing out its many flaws will somehow bring people to their senses. Instead, that actually appears to consolidate Sinn Féin support.
The popularity of Sinn Féin isn’t about Sinn Féin in totality. It is about the unaddressed issues Sinn Féin says it will tackle. It is about a base Fine Gael left behind, It is about a new Irish identity that was forged out of the crash. It is about a collective realisation that the electorate is increasingly left-wing. It is about people’s standards rising and, crucially, it’s about how engagement begets scrutiny.
This scrutiny – which isn’t all kind and pleasant – is the outcome of a generation that became politically engaged outside of the party system, and is now looking back at that system, asking “Who the hell are these lot?” and “Why are they so inadequate?”
Celtic revival
While Sinn Féin has very obviously become a political force in the 21st century, what’s less talked about is how the party is also a cultural force. It is is dovetailing with a remarkable shift in Irish culture rooted in identity and an exploration of the past that is about an almost mythical form of Irishness. Culturally, we are in a new Celtic revival and, since culture moves politics, it figures that the party most compatible with the culture of the day will be the one gaining the most traction.
How sticky is Sinn Féin’s support? I think the temperature of the anger directed towards Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil is actually higher than the temperature of support for Sinn Féin. This means that those now gravitating towards Sinn Féin – who never voted for them before – may merely visit their support upon the party, as opposed to make the move permanently.
What's obvious is how in tune middle-class people now are with the same issues that working-class voters faced
But, by then, Mary Lou McDonald will be taoiseach. I presume the smart people in Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil know how passionately many people dislike them, and are polishing their CVs, because you’ve kind of lost it when people are wearing T-shirts and carrying tote bags emblazoned with slogans about how much they hate you. Unpleasant? Sure, but it’s also happening.
All out of ideas, Paschal Donohoe’s kite-flying in the aftermath of the most recent poll that income tax should be cut was pathetic. Donohoe’s tax pitch is seen as something that will reach “Middle Ireland”. But just remember, when the media and politicians talk about “Middle Ireland”, the “class” part is silent.
But class is not silent in Sinn Féin. They built their base from working-class voters. What’s obvious is how in tune middle-class people now are with the same issues that working-class voters faced. Fine Gael’s failed policies – particularly around housing – made concrete the issues and experiences that were previously abstract to the middle classes, things they avoided due to earning power, connections and familial wealth.
Step back, and the cultural and ideological changes Irish society is undergoing are really quite stunning. And when they manifest, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are going to look more out of place than ever.