The first batch of think-ins has been completed, with the Fine Gael event in Galway coming to an end yesterday afternoon, while Sinn Féin concluded its two-day event in Monaghan earlier in the week. The Social Democrats had a half-day affair in Dublin on Wednesday.
Fianna Fáil decamps to Malahide on Monday, while Labour gathers in Drogheda next Sunday. The Greens are in Naas on Friday.
You won’t be astounded to hear that in reality not that much thinking goes on at these events. Rather they are an opportunity to gather TDs and senators together before the autumn political term, to hog the media agenda for a day or two, to boost morale (the Fine Gaelers even had a “teambuilding” event, the full horror of which can only be imagined); they’re about gathering the tribe around the campfire.
And party identification for members and activists (though less so for voters) remains tribal – a fact that must be taken into consideration when pondering the potential government alignments after the next election.
Example: after the 2016 election, it was widely anticipated that after a decent period, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil would come together to form a grand coalition. Columnists predicted it. Interviewers demanded it. A scattering of politicians in both parties (including the present Taoiseach) saw it as the logical outcome. Enda Kenny offered Micheál Martin half the government if he would do it.
Broad resistance
Martin resisted, not just because he had said he would not do it and believed that Fianna Fáil needed to demonstrate to the electorate that it would keep its promises, but because there was a deep and broad resistance to the idea within the Fianna Fáil organisation.
For a few days that March, I travelled around the country speaking to Fianna Fáil grassroots members – cumann secretaries, ordinary members, the people who stand at church gate collections – and their opposition to coalition with Fine Gael was practically unanimous. Sure, to the outside world, there might not have been much difference between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. But they believed there was a difference, and it was important to them.
Tribal feelings matter. They have discernible political effects. Those blithely predicting coalitions involving Sinn Féin should note.
To be clear, I don’t think that Fianna Fáil’s resistance to coalition with Fine Gael will always remain as strong. It may not even be as strong after the next election if Fianna Fáil is faced with the same prospects. The entire history of Irish politics over the last 30 years, after all, has been of people doing things they said they would never do . But the tribal urge was certainly strong last time, and it was important.
A government led by Fianna Fáil would be doing more or less what the government led by Fine Gael is doing
The relationship between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil has evolved hugely. All the old tribal baggage remains, but there is now also a shared awareness that they have now and are likely to have in the future a joint responsibility to work our political system in order to provide stable and reasonably competent government for the country. This is especially so at a time when abrasive, extremist politics is gaining sway in many parts of Europe, and most disastrously of all in the United States.
At the Fine Gael event in Galway, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe (he of the recent ruminations on the importance of promoting the political centre) repeatedly noted that where other parties (they meant Sinn Féin, but could have included Labour, the Greens and the Social Democrats in this) had shied away from the responsibility to provide the country with a government in 2016, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil had worked together to produce a solution to the conundrum thrown up by the election results. Fianna Fáil’s finance spokesman, Michael McGrath, has been making the same point during the week.
Competitors
At the same time, the two parties remain each other’s principal political rivals and electoral competitors. The next election is first and foremost a race between them: whoever ends up as the largest party will be in pole position to form the next government and – if the margin between them is wide enough – to bully the other into facilitating it. Polls suggest that Fine Gael at present has a hefty lead, even if I suspect it might not be as hefty as some of its more ebullient TDs and Ministers think.
Varadkar’s kind offer to allow Fianna Fáil give him two more years in government this week must be read in the light of this complicated relationship between the two parties.
Undoubtedly, Varadkar wants to work with Fianna Fáil to provide the country with strong and stable leadership. He also wants to thrash them in the next election.
It’s a matter for conjecture as to which outcome he prefers. My guess is that if a Brexit agreement is settled before the end of the year – with a withdrawal agreement and a transition period meaning nothing will change for another two years – then an election in the spring becomes very likely.
The policy differences between the two parties remain negligible. A government led by Fianna Fáil would be doing more or less what the government led by Fine Gael is doing. Perhaps it was ever thus. They fight each other, but they need each other. They remain the best of frenemies.