Edgy politicians are returning to Leinster House knowing that what happens in the coming months will be crucial in determining the election outcome, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent
The new political season starts today with the first Cabinet meeting of the autumn. This political season is different and is of the kind that both energises and terrifies the political class, because it ends in a general election.
There is now a nine-month run to the expected polling day and the political parties are focused entirely on the issues they believe the voters are focused on. Over the past three years, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour have spent around €1 million on finding out what it is that voters are concerned about. Now they will move to assure voters that they are concerned about these things too.
With many political strategists believing a large number of voters decide about six months before an election how they will vote, the activities of the parties over the next few months are crucial.
The immediate focus of the main parties is even narrower: party organisers are convinced that opinion poll results affect voter behaviour. They are therefore focused hugely on trying to influence the post-summer opinion polls expected to appear in the media over the next month.
If the autumn polls show the Fine Gael/Labour alternative continuing to make ground, then this could bring a further swing of voters towards them.
Conversely, a recovery for the Government parties after the poor pre-summer polls would demoralise the Opposition and dent its chances of convincing the public there is a credible alternative.
So the next few weeks are of considerable political significance and the recently contrived phenomenon of the party "think-in" season takes on a particular importance this year. Over the past few years, what were small party meetings designed to focus parliamentarians on the coming Oireachtas session and organisational matters, have grown into stage-managed events designed to attract media attention.
Some 50 media personnel have been accredited to cover Fianna Fáil's event in Westport next week. The choice of Oxford economics fellow Dr Dieter Helm, who has advised Tony Blair on energy policy, as guest speaker suggests the party has concluded voters are more concerned about energy - once seen as a Green issue - than before. Member of the Garda Ombudsman Commission Conor Brady and Bank of Ireland chief economist Dan McLaughlin will also speak, highlighting the party's decision to concentrate on these issues too.
The Greens have their two-day event in Wicklow, also next week, while the following week the travelling political media will move to Sligo for Fine Gael's "think in". The main opposition party is expected to focus on crime - a concern of its core voters - and the economy.
The next week - September 18th and 19th - Labour will be in Cork for two days of discussion which will concentrate more on internal party organisation and strategy than the two larger parties. Finally, the PDs will have a one-day event in Dublin on the opening day of Labour's meeting.
When considering those next opinion polls, Fianna Fáil will be encouraged by the fact they had a reasonably good summer. There was no publicity disaster such as last year's Rip Off Republic television series to set them back. A well-spread out series of relatively mundane Government announcements were made throughout August, ensuring regular positive publicity.
Behind the scenes, Fine Gael and Labour seem to have had a good summer too. Negotiators from the two parties worked to produce joint policies on public finances, health and crime. A Fine Gael spokesman said yesterday work was advanced on these, and they would be ready to be announced "in the coming weeks and months". The parties have yet to decide whether to publish these as one great agreed document, or to release bits and pieces regularly to bring steady positive publicity. But as the election campaign effectively gets under way, the two allied opposition parties appear to be close to having substantive policy agreements with which to try to convince voters.
Research, as well as feedback from party organisations and TDs' constituency contacts around the country, has told the parties immigration and crime are high among the issues that get voters going.
Government and Opposition have moved to reassure voters that they are concerned about the level of immigration too. Last week, the Government leaked details of its planned "get tough" immigration Bill which would make it compulsory for non-EU citizens to carry biometric ID cards at all times.
It also leaked its likely decision to prevent large numbers of Bulgarian and Romanian workers from coming to Ireland after their countries' expected accession to the EU.
Fine Gael welcomed the Government's immigration proposals. Labour Party leader Pat Rabbitte recently returned to the issue he first raised late last year with his remark about how there were 40 million Poles, and a threat that the arrival of large numbers here could displace Irish workers. Job displacement may be inevitable, he told the Parnell Summer School a fortnight ago, noting the growth of "Polish pubs and Chinese eateries" in the State.
Today's first post-summer marks the beginning of a period in which Ministers will prioritise legislation dealing with areas of voter concern. Over the coming weeks, the Cabinet is expected to make progress on Mr McDowell's immigration reforms, said to have the personal backing of the Taoiseach because of the sensitivity of voters. Last week, Michael Martin announced details of forthcoming legislation to add to consumer protections, which will be prioritised by the Government in the next few months.
Ministers will also start to focus on the annual budget, due in December, which gives the Government the single, most-important opportunity to influence voters. It is traditional to have a "giveaway" budget at this stage in the electoral cycle - before the last election, Charlie McCreevy accelerated Government spending hugely, only to apply the brakes straight after.
However, current economic conditions make a repeat of that more difficult politically. With growing concern already about inflation, a budget that contributes to the problem could be seen as irresponsible. The Government must balance the instinct to throw money around with its need to be seen by voters as financially cautious.
Then there are the unknowns about the State's short- and medium-term economic prospects. A US economic slowdown would have knock-on consequences here.
There is growing speculation that property prices in Ireland will shortly reach their peak, if they have not done so already. Ministers and bankers alike speak confidently in public about a "soft landing". Anything else would have negative consequences.
So while the 2002 general election took place against a backdrop of unprecedented economic optimism, the economic mood by the time the next general election comes is difficult to predict. As always, the careful stage-management by the parties may well be negated by those most unpredictable of political phenomena: events.